The emphasis on political fragility in reports and political assessments about Turkey must have drawn your attention recently. In line with this emphasis, I often come across analyses that put forward the proposition that Turkey's growth would decrease. Furthermore, these analyses can sometimes be asserted with the bossy attitude of an orientalist colonialist view from above. First of all, these kinds of assertions should not be made either for Turkey or any other country regardless of their global positions and economic potentials. Bretton-Woods institutions like the IMF, which theoretically collapsed and became a thing of the past, are no longer in a position and condition to order any developing countries to "do something in this or that way." Those days are over.
One should remember that Europe's recovery from the crisis and the future of Europe are primarily in the hands of China, India, South Korea and gradually Turkey. In a period when Russia has annexed Crimea and the annexation moves towards Ukraine, all of the Western world, mainly Britain and the U.S., should pay court to Turkey and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. The reason is that with Turkey achieving democratic stability and a stable economy, transit commercial corridors and energy pipeline alternatives to Russia can be established.
In this sense, reports and statements that stress Turkey's economic and political fragility are deliberate and do not reflect the truth. For example, the IMF reduced the growth prediction for Turkey in 2014 from 3.5 percent to 2.3. The IMF still insists that the current account deficit will increase if the growth rate increases 4 percent or more. As a matter of fact, Department of Money and Capital Markets Chief Matthew Jones stated in a press conference concerning the global financial report that fragility still persists in Turkey. He led up to the matter of the current account deficit and advised giving up the risky high growth rate that can possibly increase inflation and the current account deficit. At such times, countries like Turkey should give weight to an export-dense growth within the frame of an open economy, let alone reducing growth, pulling down the current account deficit together with inflation rates in that way.
The 10th Five-Year Development Plan of the Ministry of Development is a significant document on this matter. First of all, it is obvious that interest rates should always be lower than the average industrial profitability. The directors of the Turkish economy are already aware that domestic currency should be competitive and keep real value and that infrastructural investments that support input supply, exports and energy investments and education, health, transportation and other social investments support human capital and should continue. In addition, there is a serious awareness in Turkey about making reforms to improve the investment environment to attract long-term global investments.
Turkey is taking steps to attract global investments, which bring about research and development (R&D) and escalate the R&D development rate in the gross domestic product (GDP). However, we should note that Turkey should grow by more than 5 percent in 2014 and after. Besides, Turkey has the potential both to do this and to reduce the current account deficit at the same time.
Yet, economic fragility is mentioned together with political fragility for Turkey very often, which is a faulty perception and disinformation. Turkey is, perhaps, going through the most stable and democratic period in recent history. The government does not act like a puppet, as under military tutelage; on the contrary, it uses authorization from the people to the full extent.
Apart from that, the war in the east of Turkey has come to an end. Moreover, Turkey is currently making legal and political regulations that will solve the Kurdish issue permanently.
What is more, Turkey will vote in the smoothest, nondubious presidential elections away from that tutelage this year. If Prime Minister Erdoğan stands for the presidency, he will most probably be elected. The political preferences of the people are being prioritized for the first time, which is truly a sign of democratic political stability.
Erdoğan's presidency would positively affect Turkey in terms of the economy, as a president elected by the people, and would use this power to its full extent without a doubt.
This is much clearer than even the election results of 2015 because Erdoğan has three main and indispensable principles that bring this support to him.
The first is the Kurdish peace reconciliation process.
Erdoğan's presidency would contribute much to the permanency of the process through legal regulations. The second is the new regional foreign policy of Turkey, which is constructive and peaceful. Especially after the annexation of Crimea by Russia, this policy has started to be understood by the West. Corresponding energy investments and transit corridors starting from the Pacific become clearer with Erdoğan and bear an importance that can change borders.
And finally a handful of monopolies in the economy and the stationary system that work for the global economic system on which those monopolies rely were terminated.
Instead, a new, competitive, outward-oriented development perspective has been brought to life. Having the people elect the president can perpetuate these three main approaches of Erdoğan. This means democratic political stability will prevail not only in Turkey but also in the wider region.