This week Turkey's Energy Minister Taner Yıldız reiterated that Turkey would continue to sell Kurdish oil and went on to reveal that the fourth shipment was already en route to its buyer.
Turkey claims the controversial policy of exporting Kurdish oil is aligned with the interests of the Kurdish Regional Government, the Kurdish public and the Central Iraqi Government in mind.
Minister Yıldız stressed that Turkey had neither input nor influence with regards to the purchaser of the oil, which is determined by international markets and demand. The minister once more confirmed that payment for Kurdish petrol would be deposited in Halk Bank, one of Turkey's leading public banks, at the amount of US $93 million as payment for the first shipment. A bank statement has been issued to the Central Iraqi Government. Despite all these developments and Turkey's respect for Central Iraqi Government legal rights, it is evident that Iraq is in effect splintering. However there is another side to this issue. The export of Kurdish oil through Turkey has not only been a game changer in the Middle East, but gone as far as to outline new borders in the region.
The export and sale of Kurdish oil to the international market via Turkey is now an irreversible reality, a modern-day traversing of the Rubicon. The 20th century has fully commercialized this natural asset. The shortterm economic yields of this will result in the growth of prosperity in the region as well as the emergence of a new bourgeoisie class in Turkey and Kurdistan. This new bourgeoisie class will neither be connected solely to Kurdistan nor Turkey. This new economic power will in no time create its own political institutions and political regime.
Another key aspect of the Kurdish oil trade that will have an impact on the region is the persistent rumor that it has been purchased by Israel. While the Turkish Energy Minister Yıldız did not deny these claims, he referred them to the Kurdish Regional Government on the matter, stressing that it is not of interest to Turkey who purchases the oil. Aljazeera Turk, citing Reuters, broke the news of the petrol sale to Israel as follows: "Based on information Reuters has retrieved from ship tracking systems, the vessel 'SCF Altai' not did not depart from Turkey's Ceyhan port and utilized an unusual route given its cargo. Another tanker 'United Emblem' did depart Ceyhan for Malta. According to Reuters market sources 'United Emblem' transferred the oil to 'SCF Altai,' which then continued on to dock at Israel's Ashkelon port." Yes, Energy Minister Taner Yıldız is correct; this aspect of the transaction is not of interest to Turkey. However, it is clear that all actors who wish to exercise their power in the region have been involved in the Kurdish oil deal. A Russian public company, Rosneft, had sought to be the carrier of the oil some time ago. It is unthinkable to consider that
Israel would be interested in the resources of Mosul-Kirkuk directly. Israel, much like Iran, is utilizing Turkey as a means of being part of the international and eastern Mediterranean energy markets. Israel, via Turkey, wants to be involved in the Southern Gas Corridor. However, Iran has the same thing in mind, and is even going a step further with plans to open up a pipeline that will run just south of the TANAP pipeline with the aim of opening up the reserves of the Caspian Sea to Europe. These indicators show a pivotal and positive change in Iran and Israel.
The EU energy needs will only increase after the crisis. In 2013 the EU consumed 560 million cubic meters of gas yet only produced 200 million cubic meters. Meaning that about 360 million cubic meters of gas was imported. The EU imports 64 percent of its gas needs. When we look to the future, it is estimated the EU will consume 760 million cubic meters of gas in 2030. The role of Europe's growth as well as an alternative to closed nuclear and coal plants will be the key to the use of gas. It is expected that alongside the EU's own production, 40 million cubic meters of Norwegian reserves in the North Sea will be purchased. Thus is it is expected that Europe's own production will drop to 160 million cubic meters and that 600 million cubic meters will be imported, which will lead to a dependency of 80 percent of the EU's gas needs on Russia. In short, the sale of 240 million cubic meters is anticipated in 2030. Currently the only player that can supply this level of demand is Russia. By 2030 the West and the EU will be at the mercy of Russia for their energy needs or they will do the following:
By providing support for Kurdistan resources entering the international market via Turkey, the further integration of Turkey-Kurdistan, and the peace process started by PM Erdoğan.
To support the export of Caspian Sea reserves to Europe via the Turkish made TANAP-TAP pipeline as well as supporting the Southern Gas Corridor project and its potential for eastern Mediterranean reserves.
Supporting the democratization of Iran and accepting Turkey's positive role and efforts in this regard.
To change policies of demonizing "everything" around Israel and presenting it as though it is fascistic and instead support the normalization of Israel alongside a peaceful policy implemented via Turkey, and retract the policy of isolation towards Iran.
To support Turkey's new regional democratization, and change the policy of disinformation and Islamophobia aimed at Turkey.
If the EU, the U.K. or the U.S. failed to realize these realities, they will become countries that are subject to Russia's Eurasian project and as a result, their sovereignty also...