European Central Bank President Draghi's recent press conference was really instructive. Draghi said at the conference that the European economy's ineffective position would continue for a long time.
What is the main source of this weakness? Is it really because of the ineffectiveness and excessive public debts of the southern states such as Greece, Spain and Portugal? I think this is only the face value of the situation. I guess the real problem of the EU economy is despite the high effectiveness of traditional sectors in central European countries such as Germany, these sectors face a serious marketing problem. Also the high-tech sectors have low profit rates due to the effect of competitive pressure. Due to increasing costs, central European countries such as Germany and France struggle to compete with Asian countries in traditional sectors, especially the energy sector. If you add the euro's value to that, it is not hard to see that Germany and France will face a recession in the near future.
So what is the solution for this problem? This problem has two basic solutions within the capitalist system. The first is Germany developing an aggressive and militarist Keynesian economy as it did before and rapidly increasing profit rates in traditional sectors as a result. However, Germany would give up on EU expansion and consolidate the EU at the center of Germany and France for that. Then it will adopt a new war and conflict strategy again, beginning with the Balkans, and declare Eastern Europe as a periphery anew, beginning with Poland. For that strategy, Germany's greatest ally has been Russia so far. Especially with Gazprom, these two states nearly paralyze Eastern European countries with high-energy costs, which retard their industrialization. As you know, Germany had two major problems before World War II: Energy and market. It attempted to solve these problems by resorting to Nazism. This was the Third Reich. And now the Fourth Reich, a much drawn-back kind of Nazism, prevails. Germany assigned Juncker to the EU Parliament to implement this drawn-back Nazism.
The connection and integration between the markets of the Far East and the EU could be achieved with a new Silk Road that would involve high-speed trains developed by Turkey. Then it is possible to say that the Southern Gas Corridor and new Silk Road, which would transfer the energy sources of the Caspian Sea, Iraq, Iran and Eastern Mediterranean to Europe, are partners. And energy and trade transfer lines will both provide the great Asia-Europe integration and become the only alternative for the Eurasian Union developed by Russia.
Then we come up with three significant integrations and unions that exceed the current nation-state paradigm. The EU is one of the unions. However, it has crucial economic and political problems and has not successfully become a political union. Russia's Eurasian Union is the second one, and it is currently in the formation process. The third great integration is the commercial transit route, which is a mid-corridor starting from Turkey and following south Kurdistan, Iraq, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and finally reaching China.
This route will also reach Europe with Marmaray, the high-speed train through the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway by using the seaway passages of Turkey. This union might firstly come out as a customs union and monetary union, but it would be the cycle center of a new energy integrationthat Turkey is to form in the near future. If the EU ignores this fact and becomes introverted by following Germany's reactionary Fourth Reich attempt, it cannot join these new great integrations in the Caucasian and Middle East regions led by Russia and Turkey. Also, Russia is not willing to include the EU in the process since it desires the EU's dependence on Russia in terms of energy. Actually, this strategy of Russia conforms to Germany's 4th Reich strategy. However, the Fourth Reich's chance to be realized is very low since the Caucasus, the Middle East and Turkey are not the same anymore.
Doubtlessly, the new strategy of the U.S. also conforms to the EU's expansion strategy through Turkey. For all those reasons, the EU and the West should support the democratization, stability and peace processes in Turkey, which were initiated with Erdoğan's prime ministry and will continue after he is elected as the new president. Otherwise, the world might drift into a new war due to market and energy share interests, which might
be fiercer than World War II.