We cannot explain the current economic situation on the basis of daily developments and relevant news alone.
There were two important economy news pieces last weekend. First, the U.S.'s growth data for the third quarter revealed that the U.S. economy grew above estimations at 2.9 percent. Even though it grew by merely 1.4 percent in the second quarter, the third quarter's data does not mean that things are going well in the U.S. The U.S. is yet to achieve a permanent recovery in basic sectors and unemployment is still at critical levels. The rise in stocks and exports has a relative share in the latest growth data. The U.S. is yet to achieve the targeted inflation and domestic demand levels. Moreover, if the dollar continues to rise as a result of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate hike, the rise in exports will not continue and the economic growth will absolutely begin falling in 2017. Given this situation in the U.S. economy and the exchange rate of the dollar, the Fed's interest rate hike in December will not be a rational decision for the U.S.
Meanwhile, this uncertainty in the U.S. economy also goes for the country's politics due to the upcoming presidential elections. Presidential candidates do not have the potential to shoulder the approaching big global storm. This uncertainty in the U.S., which dominates the existing system, is seen in all systemic institutions that have maintained this dominance since World War II. This was also revealed by the second important piece of news. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the umbrella organization of oil producing countries, has long announced that oil producing countries might restrict production for the sake of price stability and sign agreements on the issue. However, they could not again reach a concrete agreement in the meeting that was held in Vienna last weekend. This is because systemic global structures like OPEC no longer have the integrity to make such decisions. The petro-dollar mechanism, which emerged in the 1970s as a result of the system that was founded after World War II, has also collapsed. Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries must make their investment decisions by considering this fact and should not forget that Turkey is an important trade route and market for them. The petro-dollar wealth that is based on oil revenues alone is coming to an end. OPEC countries must seek new remedies apart from high oil prices.
At the same time, we will see developing countries going out of their old desperate states with respect to economic policies. For instance, when Sonia Gandhi won elections as the leader of the Indian National Congress in 2004, the Bombay Stock Exchange dropped to its lowest level in its 129-year history. This was because of the concern that the Indian National Congress party rule would not implement neoliberal policies. After this, Gandhi resigned, saying, "We have limited or no opportunities to do new things in our rule."
Certainly, Gandhi would not exhibit the same behavior today. However, the conditions of that time and the neoliberal siege left her no chance for success. She knew past clichés were no longer valid.
In sum, her vision was based on the idea that nothing would be done in a single country in a short period of time. This is because political parties like the Indian National Congress must change balances without harming the public in countries with strong dynamism like India. Gandhi's awareness that India would not be able to bring this change by isolating itself from the world was a scientific fact rather than foresight. There was such a rigid siege that it was impossible for southern and eastern countries to overcome and go beyond it.
Former Hungarian President Ferenc Gyurcsany experienced a similar tragedy in 2003. However, he was not as farsighted as Gandhi and he had to experience it when he was in power. He resigned, saying, "We lied, we lied to the public and will continue to lie if things continue to happen like this."Of course, Hungary did not have a chance for a change on its own in the middle of Europe. The EU must understand that the main problem is unilateral neoliberal policies that impoverish countries apart from central ones like Germany and push them to the periphery from the center. The migrant problem that the EU considers to be dangerous is a result of unilateral enrichment in a single center. Turkey upholds a fair economic approach that highlights open and inclusive growth for everyone in the region. The sharing of all natural resources in a fair way and an economy that is established on people's welfare, production and trade accompanies peace. In this regard, the Middle East cannot achieve peace without Turkey's stability.
On many occasions Turkey experienced the same tragedy as Gandhi and Gyurcsany. Many political leaders until President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's time failed to take the necessary steps toward national and regional peace and welfare. This was a consequence of the siege. Erdoğan is the only leader who tried to overcome this siege. In fact, his historic reproach, saying "I saw nobody siding with me in my struggle apart from my nation," is the most concise expression of this fact. The rising voting rate and support for Erdoğan is because of his defense of economic policies that highlight public welfare at all costs.
Now, Erdoğan turns out to be right; so not only Turkey, but also India and Hungary have the chance for a change.
The crisis facing developed countries significantly undermines their hegemony that it thought would last forever. This is a historic opportunity and only a determined political leadership can turn it into an inclusive transformation and change that favors the oppressed. Considering this, what we are discussing today does not merely concern the change of borders and maps. Unlike what the West did with a colonial motive in the past, Turkey does not aim to change borders and seize natural resources from its true owners. However, it wants the mistakes of the past, which causes pain and poverty today, to be corrected. All underground and aboveground resources in the region cannot belong to anyone apart from the region's own people. Therefore, Turkey is waging a major struggle against terrorist organizations like Daesh in Syria and Iraq. Those failing to see these facts and distorting them will end up losers in this process.
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