The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) increased its key interest rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday. Global financial markets had based all their calculations on a 25-basis point hike and took this hike for granted a long time ago.
Thus the interest rate hike will not have a strong impact on developing countries. Indeed, for a long time now, the U.S. has considered the gradual exclusion of the dollar in global trade to be a problem of financing for itself and tried to prevent this by keeping the dollar high. For instance, the amount of dollars that are excluded in trade among BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) is increasing with every passing year. This is why the old capital structure, which is based on the dollar-dependent American hegemony that was founded after World War II, is going to every length to hinder new commercial, economic and political unions and dragging countries that can form such unions into a new war vortex. The current war that is being waged through terrorist organizations is actually a war on sharing, like World War II, and terrorist organizations are the paramilitary armies of this post-conventional warfare.
This is why President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan defined the new process that Turkey is undergoing as a new war of independence yesterday. In this regard, this process will not have economic and political consequences for Turkey much different from the change in the first quarter of the previous century. Moreover, we will witness a more far-reaching political and economic change than that. I must add that there are rumors that developing countries are controlling capital flow and restricting foreign currency accounts. For instance, Malaysia had to issue a statement that it would not control capital flow last month. There are also rumors that Turkey will restrict foreign currency circulation and foreign currency accounts. Obviously, these fallacies are being put forward as part of a financial operation. I advise no one and no company to believe them.
Also, some expect a new, but more far-reaching chain of financial crises than the early 1990s, depending on the rapid acceleration of the dollar as a result of the Fed's interest rate hike.
The dollar, which rose in the 1980s until the 1985 Plaza Accord, reduced commodity prices like today and brought developing countries, especially ones in Latin America, closer to crisis. The real crisis, however, followed the 1995 Reverse Plaza Accord 10 years later.
As the dollar rapidly and artificially gained value, many developing countries implementing a fixed exchange rate regime were quickly absorbed by the crisis. These countries, including Turkey, were captives of monetary and fiscal policies determined by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). They all became cheap debt and import havens through fixed exchange rate regimes and currency-board systems. Political institutions were also enslaved by this robber economy. From this point of view, for countries like Turkey, politics in the 1990s led to a state of economic stagnation.
Now Turkey and many other developing countries are applying a floating exchange rate regime instead of a currency-board system or a fixed exchange rate system, which are colonial practices. They are developing a new growth model. Therefore, they have a market mechanism argument against the rapid appreciation of the dollar. But apart from that, they developed a bank system that is as strong as those of developed countries in this process.
In this respect, no one should expect a new financial crisis in Turkey, depending on both domestic political developments and global dynamics.
On the contrary, Turkey's new quest for peace in Syrian and Iraqi territories is a quest that will boost the Turkish economy in the medium and long term. New energy lines, new harbors and logistics networks being opened in the Mediterranean, new trade routes coming from China - the middle and southern corridors of the New Silk Road are the basis of this - and Turkey's economic activity in these places point to a new eastern development and peace process.
Today, the Aleppo tragedy is a result of the colonization of this region by the West during the disintegration of the Ottoman Empire at the beginning of the previous century.
One of the main reasons for the Syrian civil war is the Aleppo-Latakia trade cycle. This is one of the most important economic cycles in the world as it controls the Mediterranean and Mesopotamian trade cycle on the old Silk Road. Since the early 20th century, the Ottoman Empire's links with this region have been broken. All these territories are being impoverished under the pressure of comprador military regimes. Free trade and economic activities are being hindered and handed over to a few families. All trade relations in this region with Turkey are being broken. Therefore, unless trade in Turkey's direction starts in Aleppo and Latakia in the peace and post-peace process, and unless these two cities are connected to the İskenderun port, peace and prosperity cannot be achieved. All other methods are makeshift solutions.