It seems that after the Nov. 1 elections, the Cyprus conflict between Turkey and Greece might end with the decision of the leaders of the two sides to establish a common living environment in the country
Greece held elections on Sunday. Turkey will do so in less than six weeks. Both elections were anticipated. Nobody thought that less than a year after a historic electoral victory, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras would be obliged to ask for renewed democratic legitimacy. No one really expected in Turkey that, in spite of being at the helm of government for 13 years, the AK Party would fall short of seats in Parliament to form a single-party government.
All of this has happened. Tsipras remains the most popular politician in his country. The last elections results gave him a majority as large as the last year's, but this time Syriza has been weakened and divided. Greeks renewed Tsipras's mandate, but their reluctance and disappointment regarding the political class remains intact as shown by the very low turnout in the elections.
Turkey is diametrically different. The participation in the electoral contests remains very high, well above EU standards, and the political parties do not change their leaders easily, if ever, as is the case in Greece.
Tsipras has asserted his domination over Greek politics. His most visible advantage is his will to make things change in the Greek state apparatus. Whether this involves a huge and massive wave of privatization does not seem to scare him much. Tsipras is very capable to overhaul the Greek clientele system in exchange for reforms asked by the troika of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), European Commission and European Central Bank (EBD). He is one of those rare politicians who is truly committed to dismantle the immovable Greek bureaucracy and clientelism. If it takes a restructuring contrary to the anti-capitalist principles professed by the Syriza, it will not be an insurmountable task. Greece's main problem is its ossified public sector, which prevents any opening toward more transparent and dependable governance. The political class is under the total control of an oligarchical class so left-wing parties never had enough strength to become an alternative to Syriza. If the latter does not turn into a post-modern version of the Panhellenic Socialist Movement (PASOK), it will be a first plausible alternative to the political system in Greece's recent political history.
An interesting opening for both Tsipras and Greece could be a rapprochement with Turkey. In the past, all these attempts went directly into the wall of misunderstandings and conflicting appreciations over Cyprus. So long as Cyprus remains unsolved, so long as both Turkey and Greece prefer to live in their respective legends regarding the Cypriot problem, real rapprochement is not possible. Now that there is, almost for the first time in Greek Cyprus and for the second time in Turkish Cyprus, two leaders genuinely committed to establishing a common way of living in Cyprus, new perspectives are opened.
With Cyprus solved, Turkey's Aegean region can become a very important trading partner for Greece, and vice versa. Since the demise of the Ottoman Empire a lot has been done to revive old trading routes and ties, but to no avail, and with every attempt failed, both sides of the Aegean have become two very different and totally alienated spheres of social and economic life. Now if such an impetus can be given, basically for the first time in a century, a very different momentum can be created.
Tsipras cannot do this alone. It is a fact that the government in Turkey wants to see a solution on Cyprus and Turkish Cypriots have a very large margin to maneuver. But there is only a caretaker government in Turkey, and we will have to wait for the outcome of the Nov. 1 elections. Surprisingly enough, never have Turkish elections had such an importance for Greeks in modern history.
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