Russia, having serious difficulties due to the sanctions imposed on it by Europe recently, has been encouraged for new lunges by the passiveness of deterrence of the U.S. after its attacks on Georgia and Ukraine. Moscow might have noticed that the NATO alliance is a mess because the goings on in Ukraine and Crimea, which have taken place in the heart of Europe, do not resemble those in Georgia or Syria. Russia maintains the Soviet Union's out-of-control and challenging military attitude.
I do not know who created or governs DAESH, but this organization has succeeded in destroy the U.S.'s wisdom. One would think that 40 states have come together to fight DAESH, but none of them are. And three more terrorist organizations have emerged that are worse than DAESH to top it off:
*Shiite militia: The religious motivation of this militia is higher than that of DAESH members. They kill people on behalf of Iran, which trains militants. They are killing thousands of civilians in Iraq, and nobody is objecting. Additionally, the Shiite militia carried out a massacre in Syria in defiance of the laws of war.
*The PKK and Democratic Union Party (PYD): It is well known that the PKK, which is responsible for killing 30,000 people in Turkey, has been carrying out an ethnic cleansing in Syria. It is quite difficult to understand why this Marxist, monistic organization has pinned its hopes on terrorists instead of a coalition of 40 countries founded by the U.S. Maybe the reason for Russia's deed against the U.S. is based on such a weird situation.
*Hezbollah: Founded in Lebanon to fight Israel, Hezbollah has received billions of dollars and lots of missiles from Iran. Hezbollah has now changed its position concerning killing Muslims. This organization is no different than DAESH since it has left thousands of people dead under siege in Madaya. They are also as skilled as DAESH is using media.
*Syrian President Bashar Assad's regime: It's more than enough to say that the Assad regime, which has entered into Iran's service, has been committing a war crime by using barrel bombs to kill civilians. But which court would judge a war crime in such an out-of-joint world?
Chaos theory might be a strategy employed by Iran or the U.S. The point has reversed everything, and Russia has noticed such a gap. The Syrian civil war will be solved sooner or later. The Sunni population in Syria is high enough that they cannot be wiped out one by one. After a general election in 10 years, the regime, supported by Iran, Russia and Alawites, will lose. How many years can the U.S. and Russia wait for the PYD to try to found a state with a population of 400,000 Kurds? Actually, everything will recede one day.
The Syrian civil war might end in a way in which the deterrence of NATO and the U.S. is no longer effective. The remaining Syrians in the country might move to the West and to Turkey. The biggest question here is Russia, which is out of control. Can Russia stir up trouble with Norway, occupy all of Ukraine or want East Germany back again? The result of the war in Syria will determine such things. While U.S. President Barack Obama continues to play golf, many things in the world are changing.
About the author
İhsan Aktaş is Chairman of the Board of GENAR Research Company. He is an academic at the Department of Communication at Istanbul Medipol University.