No surprise at the ballot box

The March 30 elections has been proven to be another political victory for Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. 45 percent of the overall vote is definitely a remarkable success.

This outcome is not a surprise for those who follow Turkish politics on the ground and look at the polls. However, on the other hand, it might come as surprising to many observers in the West because of the recent controversies and claims of corruption and authoritarianism. How is it that Erdoğan wins despite all these allegations?

The answer lies in a couple of reasons but I should first start with the significance of Erdoğan's image among the masses. What does his governance mean for the traditional, conservative masses? It means one thing: With Erdoğan they see their own reflection, their voice at power. Erdoğan, with his patriarchal and courageous image, is seen as a hero who stood against the military tutelage to protect his people and now standing against a Gülenist tutelage, fighting for the victory of democratic politics. This is the general approach of the millions toward the claims of fraud and corruption.

Another belief is that many conservatives also think that informal fundraising for 'the good cause' like sponsoring Islamic charities have also been introduced as corruption.

Looking at the election results, it is actually possible to say that the claims brought the masses closer to Erdoğan, strengthening their bonds to him even more. The main reason for such a counter effect is the way the allegations were publicized. They were based on wiretaps that were systematically exposed on the Internet through shady, unknown sources. This proved a conspiracy against the government by the "parallel state."

But what will happen now? Will there be investigations concerning the claims of a "parallel state" and its actors? According to Erdoğan's statements before and after the elections, there should. There is also a demand from the public to find out who was behind the wiretapping and eavesdropped on top secret state meetings with the motive to shape the country's politics.

So we can say that in the following days Turkish politics will be focused on finding the answers to these questions and also on the upcoming presidential elections planned for August 10. Will Erdoğan run for the presidency or not? We don't know yet. But what we do know is that the results of the March 30 election raised his chance to win the presidential elections. These results are an indication that if he does decide to run, he will win the elections hands down in the first round. How? By keeping his 45 percent and adding the votes of the Kurds who are supposed to be his political allies since the "reconciliation process" is continuing with promising success. But there still is another possibility for him to stay in power as prime minister for another term and support Abdullah Gül for his second term in presidency.

Whatever happens one thing is clear:

Erdoğan and his Ak Party keep winning elections and there is no other political party in the horizon to challenge the AK Party's power any time soon...