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World Bank warns of global slowdown amid dollar rally

by Taha Meli Arvas

Apr 14, 2015 - 12:00 am GMT+3
by Taha Meli Arvas Apr 14, 2015 12:00 am
The U.S. Dollar Index continued to rally globally as investors looked to cover dollar-short bets and move into U.S. treasuries. The eurozone's common currency, the euro, lost more ground against the dollar, trading at $1.05 to the euro - a 13 year low. The pound fared no better falling to a multi-year low against the U.S. dollar as well, trading at $1.46 to the pound late Monday. The Turkish lira joined its European neighbors in depreciating to over TL 2.65 to the U.S. dollar.

The dollar rally comes on the heels of a World Bank report released Monday which warns of a global economic slow-down, particularly in the world's largest economy, China. I've been highlighting the continued drop in the U.S. employment participation rate as evidence of uneven growth and a signal of a looming decrease in consumption. Where do the goods that most Americans consume come from? Asia. The World Bank's "East Asia and Pacific Economic Update" report details revised projections which predict slowing growth in exactly this part of the world. The outlook for economic growth in China was revised, decreasing 2014 growth numbers by 40 basis points from 7.4 percent to 7 percent by 2016. The report goes on to highlight the risks associated with the growing strength of the dollar, stating: "Higher U.S. interest rates and an appreciating U.S. dollar associated with monetary policy divergence across the advanced economies may raise borrowing costs, generate financial volatility and reduce capital inflows more sharply than anticipated." Unfortunately, the report also highlights the risk associated with a prolonged recession in the eurozone, something which is all but certain at this point, saying that "The recovery in high-income countries continues to be slow and uneven, and a downturn in the eurozone and Japan would weaken global trade."

The good news is that a drop in energy prices may temper this downturn and that governments in Asia should use this period of low energy costs as an opportunity to "expand and upgrade physical infrastructure and improve public access to higher education and health care" in the medium-term and for the long-term, "countries will need to find ways to sustain productivity growth, contain health care costs and expand the revenue base for social security," much of which the Turkish government is currently doing. It's important for investors in Turkey to review reports such as the World Bank's as finance is a relative game. The nominal increase in growth, prices or even consumer confidence is only as important as its relative strength against the same metrics of other countries. Stating nominal figures without comparing them to global competitors is for the naive. Although the Turkish lira is down against the U.S. dollar, it is still better off than many of its neighbors - making it a regional destination for investors.

With only two months remaining to the next parliamentary election, Turkey is on the cusp of entering a period of several election-free years in which the new government, whichever it ends up being, will have time to invest in the necessary fields that will give the private sector the resources necessary to accelerate growth in this new era of lowered energy costs.

As the United States moves forward in its nuclear power negotiations with Iran and the GCC countries move to stamp out anti-government forces in Yemen, Turkey has again reemerged as a bastion of stability and strength in an otherwise volatile neighborhood. Resolution of these conflicts coupled with what I believe will be the suspension of any interest rate hikes in the United States in 2015 may benefit Turkey greatly. The reversal of the strong-dollar trend coupled with continued pressure on energy prices would be the best of both worlds for Turkey as its new government is seated and looks to get to work.

I may not be alone in my prediction of a weaker dollar in the near-future if you believe the words of American "Bond King" Bill Gross of Pimco fame. In an interview with Bloomberg, Gross explained several trades he is in and declared that his short-dollar trade may be the "trade of the year."

Should the "Bond King" and I be validated in our assertions, look for Turkish markets to rally following the election should one party be given a mandate.
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