Exactly one year ago today, I wrote a column entitled "should you invest in Bitcoins?" I describe what cryptocurrencies are and how quickly they have appreciated. I talked about the pros and cons of cyprtocurrencies and what the obstacles are for mass acceptance and adoption of the currency. Ultimately, however, I recommend against investing in cryptocurrencies as "current risks outweigh the potential reward" I wrote back then. That was 364 days ago. Was I right?
At the time I wrote in the column that the top three "cryptos," namely Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple were trading at $4,500, $359, and $0.22 respectively. During the year, they each saw highs of $19,500, $1,353, and $3.16, respectively. Currently, they trade at $7,101, $296, and $0.35. This means if you had gone against my recommendation and bought cryptos you would have seen an annual return of 59 percent with Bitcoin and Ripple but you would have lost 17.58 percent with Ethereum. Throughout the year I tweeted about cryptos including a week after they all hit their all-time highs in January. I argued feverishly against what I believe has turned into a Ponzi scheme-if it wasn't one from the word go. A good friend of mine got into Ethereum near the top and lost nearly 70 percent. If you had gotten into Bitcoin near the top you'd be down 76 percent for the year.
So, was I right? Yes and no. Did the cryptos appreciate after my call, absolutely! They went up between 200 percent and 1,500 percent from the date I made my call to their highs. They all, however, also saw lows below where they are now. In other words, if you had timed it right you would have made some real money and if you had not you would have lost an arm and a leg. Herein lies the demise of cryptocurrencies - at least this batch - for the foreseeable future.
Currency volatility is the kiss of death for a currency. A volatile currency will be sold off and depreciate very quickly. Trade will grind to a halt in that currency and people will flock to calmer waters. A curb on volatility, not necessarily an appreciation of the currency, is the only thing that will ultimately calm jittery investors and ultimately allow a currency to recover from such a massive drop.
So have my recommendations changed? At the time I wrote the column there was near zero adoption of the currency, you couldn't readily exchange it for goods and services. A year later, adoption is still practically zero. This is the problem. An investment that is only a tool for speculating will ultimately come crashing down like all Ponzi schemes do. If you can't find a sucker to buy the investment you bought with the intention to offload with profit, you're going to have to offload it with a loss. The fewer suckers remain, the greater your loss will be.
I made a call in January that I believe all cryptocurrencies will depreciate by 90 percent by the end of 2018. I stand by that call and at this pace, it will probably come true. Short of convincing a major retailer, a utility, a government to jump on board and accept these "coins" as legal tender, they are all destined for a massive beating and ultimately, oblivion.
