The recent escalation of tensions around Idlib which have developed in response to coordinated attacks by the Syrian regime and Russia have put the pledges of the Astana and Sochi peace processes under a heavy strain. Despite their promises to Turkey, Russian and Iranian-backed parties to the conflict are destroying the fundamental pillar upon which a possible political solution for the Syrian crisis might rest. For the last three years, Ankara has cooperated and coordinated with Moscow and Tehran in order to stabilize the situation in the country. However, in return, Ankara expected Moscow and Tehran's support in its struggle against Daesh and PKK/YPG. Ankara also expected Moscow's help in preventing and controlling the flow of refugees streaming out of Syria. Unfortunately, Moscow and Tehran have not fulfilled these promises.
The Russian side has demonstrated that they do not believe in a diplomatic or political solution to the Libyan and Syrian civil wars any more than any other civil conflict in the region. Their position in the Ukrainian Civil War was similar; they benefited from the indifference of NATO and other international actors and expanded further. They believe that they are strong enough to change the status quo and get what they want by the use of force. They act comfortably because there is no other actor that has either the capabilities or the will to contain or limit Russian aggression in the region. The U.S. is not interested in limiting Russian military aggression either. 2020 is the year of presidential elections in the U.S., by which politicians will be distracted by their domestic agendas. The Russians will try to benefit from the distraction and may further their expansion in the region.
Putin's Russia no longer considers Syria an external issue. Indeed, Russian military and intelligence now act like they own Syria and work on behalf of the regime. They have started to demonstrate reactions similar to those previously characteristic of Assad's army and Mukhabarat intelligence service. In other words, the Russian military has replaced the Syrian army, Military Intelligence Directorate and Federal Security Service (FSB) to act together under the banner of Russia. This does not necessarily mean that the regime operates without autonomy on the ground. Rather, they have much autonomy in the field – albeit within the boundaries drawn up by their Russian counterparts.
Please click to read our informative text prepared pursuant to the Law on the Protection of Personal Data No. 6698 and to get information about the cookies used on our website in accordance with the relevant legislation.
6698 sayılı Kişisel Verilerin Korunması Kanunu uyarınca hazırlanmış aydınlatma metnimizi okumak ve sitemizde ilgili mevzuata uygun olarak kullanılan çerezlerle ilgili bilgi almak için lütfen tıklayınız.