Turkey expects leverage in Washington while US, Israel eye energy benefits after rapprochement

Turkish officials have long believed Turkey's isolation in Washington and the American media has everything to do with the pro-Israeli lobby in the United States. While American newspapers have been critical of Turkey's foreign affairs and domestic policy, pro-Israeli U.S. lawmakers have been penning letters to the State Department and the White House, urging the Obama administration to pressure Turkey on a number of fronts.

Last week, Israel and Turkey announced a reconciliation deal after the killing of nine Turkish citizens aboard a passenger ship, the Mavi Marmara, in 2010 and a Turkish official believes it can greatly help Turkey in Washington and the region. U.S. officials and experts say the deal will have positive consequences in the region, specifically in terms of the wider energy cooperation between the two countries, which involves a possible gas deal that can help energy-hungry Turkey and provide much-needed income for Israel.

Following Turkey and Israel's decision to normalize diplomatic relations, the first task for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was to call U.S. Vice President Joe Biden. He thanked Biden "for encouraging" the negotiations between the two countries. Biden's response focused on the "positive security and economic benefits" of the agreement, an apparent reference to energy politics. Then, Netanyahu revealed that Vice President Biden was influential in convincing him to sign this deal. "In Davos, [he] brought his gas expert, and he said this will create part of the foundation of the future of your economy," Netanyahu said last week during televised remarks in Rome.

Biden's energy expert is Amos Hochstein, U.S. Special Envoy for International Energy Affairs, and also a former Israeli. Hochstein has played a critical role in convincing regional powers to come together behind an energy framework in the Eastern Mediterranean. He brokered deals between Israeli and Jordanian firms in late 2014 and was the first person to say that Israel would be able to export its natural gas to Turkey before there was a reconciliation agreement.

"While not the leading factor, energy plays an important role in motivating and incentivizing. The announcement on the normalization of relations between Israel and Turkey offers a rare opportunity for increased cooperation on energy. If similar progress can be made in Cyprus, we could see a new geopolitical and economic reality in the Eastern Mediterranean," Hochstein said in a written statement to Daily Sabah.

Israel's Leviathan gas field has an estimated 622 cubic meters of natural gas reserves that can benefit Turkey, Cyprus and Egypt. Some experts say Israeli gas is facing serious problems such as inflated costs, legal problems and regional disagreements. U.S. energy firm Noble energy says the field is to become operational in 2019 if the firm can find $5 billion of funding for its operations. Experts say a possible pipeline going through Cyprus and Turkey would require another $3 billion to $5 billion while the disagreements with both countries still remain. "Turkey can import U.S. LNG [Liquefied Natural Gas] rather than focusing on Israeli gas, which seems to be facing a lot of problems. In two years the U.S. will be able to export a great amount of gas," former U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Douglas Hengel said in a panel on Turkey's energy needs in February.

However, it appears that the U.S. has quietly invested in the Leviathan project, as U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry was involved in a lobbying effort on behalf of Noble in December 2014, when Noble faced a serious legal obstacle in the country. Not surprisingly, Kerry's annual 2016 financial disclosure report says he owns up to a half a million dollars in Noble shares.

Former U.S. Ambassador Matthew Bryza, who is also an energy specialist, believes that Washington's interest in Eastern Mediterranean energy is merely focusing on the use of those resources to strengthen relations between U.S. allies, including Israel and Turkey. Bryza said the U.S. is also hopeful of facilitating the settlement of the Cyprus question with energy politics.

Omri Ceren, a managing director at The Israel Project, an American organization that works on Middle Eastern issues, said the rapprochement with Turkey will boost Israel's integration in the region and will ensure Israel can play its role as an energy and military powerhouse.

Turkish officials are more interested in the strategic benefits of Israeli-Turkish reconciliation in the region and in Washington rather than energy interests. A senior Turkish official said Turkey was already in favor of the Israel reconciliation deal before including the energy dimension to the negotiations. "The agreement was in our agenda for the last six months. When Israel accepted our demands on Gaza, we wanted to sign the deal. The energy topic surfaced much later," the Turkish official said, speaking on condition of anonymity according to Turkish government protocols.

Turkey's expectation from this deal is to increase its leverage in the region while hoping for better cooperation in Syria, more effective relations with the United States and a more collaborative approach in the Middle East.

Malcolm Hoenlein, executive vice-chairman for the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations, said this deal would definitely help Turkey repair its image in the eyes of the U.S. media and Capitol Hill. Hoenlein was among the Jewish leaders who met President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan twice over the last year and said that he welcomes the reconciliation between the two countries and hopes Turkey "might be beneficial for the release of Israeli soldiers and citizens from Hamas custody." Another Turkish official said he felt the change of air in Washington immediately after the announcement of the deal. "The quick condemnations for the Istanbul Atatürk International Airport attack and the strong solidarity shown by the U.S. media are good signs of how this new era will benefit Turkey. We could even be seeing friendlier interactions with U.S. lawmakers," the official said.