U.S.-based finance giant Goldman Sachs said members of the "fragile five," including Turkey, can respond to a shock today arguably better than at any other time in the past few years, according to a report in the Turkish daily Dünya.
Goldman Sachs noted that the "fragile five" catchphrase is a misnomer. According to assessments by the entity's managers, including Angus Bell, who runs about $45 billion for Goldman Sachs Asset Management's fund, the members of the "fragile five" are actually fairly sturdy.
According to Bell, the debt dynamics of Turkey, which is among the "fragile five," are "the least of its concerns." Noting that he likes the manageable deficits and relatively low debt levels of Argentina, Bell said Egypt's painful economic adjustment has restored macroeconomic stability.
Goldman Sachs Asset Management has long positions in Argentine and Turkish Eurobonds and Egyptian local notes.
The concept of the "fragile five" was created four years ago by Morgan Stanley. Standard & Poor's (S&P) Global Ratings recently included Turkey, Argentina, Pakistan, Egypt and Qatar in this group.
Meanwhile, a number of international institutions and organizations recently increased their growth estimates for Turkey. The European Commission (EC) earlier this month increased its 2017 growth forecast for Turkey by more than 2 percentage points. According to the European Economic Forecast Autumn report, Brussels' latest set of economic forecasts project that the Turkish economy will grow 5.3 percent in 2017, up from its previous estimate of 3 percent in May.
The EC raised the country's economic growth forecast for 2018 from 3.3 percent to 4 percent. The Turkish economy is also expected to grow 4.1 percent in 2019.
The increase followed the International Monetary Fund (IMF) upping Turkey's 2017 growth forecast 2.6 percentage points on Oct. 10, and the World Bank raising its forecast 0.4 percentage points on Oct. 19.
On Nov. 7, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) also upgraded its 2017 growth forecast for Turkey by 2.6 percentage points. The EBRD projects that the Turkish economy will grow 5.1 percent in 2017 and 3.5 percent in 2018.
