An energy outlook report released by the Greece-based Institute of Energy for South East Europe (IENE) says that Turkey is the leader in the region in terms of energy investment and demand. The report also foresees that 141.6 billion euros will be invested in the country's energy sector until 2025.
Covering 13 countries in the region - Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Slovenia, Cyprus, Macedonia, Greece, Kosovo, Montenegro, Romania, Serbia and Turkey - the IENE report highlighted Turkey's energy position in the region, as the country has made significant progress in adapting its legislation and market operations to European energy acquis.
"Turkey emerges as a dominant factor in shaping the region's final energy demand. This is understandable since its economy is growing sustainably and exhibits relatively high growth rates over the years as compared to the rest of southeastern Europe," the report says. As for energy demand estimates, the report says that the country's final energy demand will increase from 52 percent in 2020 to 60 percent in 2050, while most of the countries in the region are anticipated to experience a meager 1 percent rise or fall in final energy demand.
With regard to production, the report says total primary energy production in southeastern Europe is projected to grow from 111 million tons of oil equivalent (MTOE) in 2015 to 143 MTOE in 2050, with Turkey accounting for up to 45 percent of this total production."When Turkey is not taken into account, total production remains almost unchanged throughout the study period," it says.
Turkey also accounts for more than double the region's power production, seeing a strong expansion throughout the years since the country's gross electricity generation is projected to increase from 242 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2015 to 422 TWh in 2050.
The IENE report examined energy investments from 2016 to 2025 in accordance with two scenarios. The worst case scenario predicts that 267 billion euros will be invested in the energy sector across southeastern Europe, while the best case scenario anticipates a 321 billion euro investment in the industry.
According to the report, Turkey tops other countries in energy projects in terms of country-based investments. The worst-case scenario for Turkey outlines that the country will allocate some 124.9 billion euros in energy investments, and 141.6 billion, in the projected best-case scenario by 2025. The country is followed by Greece with a 23.3 billion euros to 30.2 billion euros investment in energy.
Approximately 10 percent of the $145 billion foreign direct investment Turkey attracted from 2006 to 2016 went to the energy sector, which ranks third in terms of investment-drawing sectors in the 10 years. Following the manufacturing and finance sectors, which drew $38.4 billion and $29.7 billion respectively, energy investments from international companies amounted to $15.7 billion from 2006 to 2016.
Renewable energy investments, including solar, wind, geothermal and biomass, are expected to reach 40 billion euros to 50 billion euros. The fund allocated to power generation with nuclear and thermal plant investments is projected to exceed 141.6 billion euros. The cost of inter-regional, mega energy investments total to more than $60 billion, the report says.
Moreover, the current oil demand in Europe is 59 million tons and will increase fourfold by 2050, reaching 220 million tons, the report predicts. Turkey again claims the top position with a 60 percent increase.
The SEE Energy Outlook 2016/2017 is a comprehensive study that deals with the current energy situation in southeastern Europe, but is also concerned with its outlook from now until 2050. Additionally, the study covers a number of peripheral countries including Israel, Egypt, Syria, Lebanon, Moldova, Ukraine, Hungary and Italy, which are economically and geographically related to southeastern European countries.