‘BREXIT' is now more likely than ever with single party Tory government
by Ali Ünal
ISTANBULMay 08, 2015 - 12:00 am GMT+3
by Ali Ünal
May 08, 2015 12:00 am
The Conservative Party of the United Kingdom, led by current Prime Minister David Cameron, won an unexpected victory in Thursday's election by securing over 330 seats, slightly over the 324-seat requirement to form a single-party government in the 650-member parliament, putting them on the brink of an outright majority. Under Prime Minister Cameron's majority government the Tories will be able to govern without the need for a coalition or a formal agreement with the other parties. The majority government also means that the ruling party will be able to deliver their entire manifesto, including holding a referendum on EU membership, which had been promised by Cameron before the election.
Addressing this issue in his victory speech, Cameron said that a majority government will be able to deliver the party's entire manifesto, "I truly believe we're on the brink of something special in our country. We will deliver that in-out referendum on Europe," he said in the front of Downing Street on Friday afternoon. Holding a referendum in regards to the U.K.'s membership of the European Union is almost certain in 2017. Moreover in order to get more support from nationalist voters, such as the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) voters, Cameron may hold it as early as 2016. According to the latest polls, 56 percent of the British voters support the continuation of EU membership while only 34 percent of them are against it. However, the undecided voters' may be in favor of "Brexit." Regarding the referendum result, Mujtaba Rahman, Europe practice head at Eurasia Group, the world's largest political risk consultancy, predicted that a two-year renegotiation period will also distract the government from its domestic agenda. "Polls are likely to tighten and even flip in the final countdown, as they did before the Scottish referendum in September 2014. This is why an accidental exit cannot be ruled out," Rahman said. "Cameron is going to find himself squeezed between the impossibility of his party's demands, and the serious limitations imposed upon him by the rest of Europe, increasing the risks of the wrong answer when the referendum takes place," he further added.