Professor Dr. Levent Kurnaz, Director of the Center for Climate Change and Policy Studies at Boğaziçi University, has highlighted the alarming trend of rising greenhouse gas emissions and the warming of the atmosphere. Despite calls for mitigation from various countries, the response has been insufficient.
According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) report, 2023 saw record levels of greenhouse gas concentrations. In the past two decades, carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere have increased by 11.4%, continuing to accumulate at an unprecedented pace. Data from long-term observations by the WMO's Global Atmosphere Watch network reveals that last year, global carbon dioxide concentration reached 420 parts per million (ppm), methane concentration reached 1934 parts per billion (ppb) and nitrous oxide reached 336.9 ppb. These levels correspond to increases of 151%, 265% and 125%, respectively, compared to pre-industrial levels.
As the most significant greenhouse gas linked to human activities, carbon dioxide is responsible for approximately 64% of global warming effects. Its atmospheric increase has exceeded 2 ppm for the twelfth consecutive year. The amount of carbon dioxide measured last year was 2.3 ppm higher than in 2022, although it was lower than the increases observed in the previous three years.
Carbon dioxide emissions from global wildfires last year were estimated to be 16% above the average, ranking as the seventh highest since 2003. Canada experienced its worst recorded wildfire season, while Australia faced its driest three-month period from August to October last year.
Methane concentration in the atmosphere increased by 0.57%, measuring 1934 ppb last year. Although this was less than in 2022, the period from 2018 to 2023 recorded the highest methane levels in recent history. Methane, a potent greenhouse gas that can remain in the atmosphere for about a decade, accounts for roughly 16% of warming effects caused by long-lived greenhouse gases. About 40% of methane emissions come from natural sources, while the remaining 60% is attributed to human activities.
Nitrous oxide levels rose by 0.33%, reaching 336.9 ppb. This gas, which is both a potent greenhouse gas and an ozone-depleting chemical, is responsible for about 6% of the warming effects of long-lived greenhouse gases. The increase from 2022 to 2023 was lower than the record rise seen between 2021 and 2022.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo commented, "Another year, another record. This should sound alarm bells among decision-makers. We are clearly on the wrong path in meeting the targets set by the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to below 2 degrees Celsius and, ideally, to 1.5 degrees. These are not just statistics; every increment of particles and every degree of temperature rise has a real impact on our lives and our planet."
WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett also warned that humanity faces a potential vicious cycle. He explained that natural climate variability plays a significant role in the carbon cycle, but climate change may cause ecosystems to become greater sources of greenhouse gases. For instance, wildfires can release more carbon into the atmosphere, while warmer oceans can absorb less, leading to more carbon dioxide remaining in the atmosphere and accelerating global warming.
Prof. Dr. Kurnaz described greenhouse gases as preventing excess heat from escaping into space, thereby causing the Earth to warm. He emphasized the need for a balanced energy release from Earth to maintain stable surface temperatures. Despite over three decades of international agreements to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, levels have consistently risen - except for a brief period during the COVID-19 pandemic.
He noted that human activities over the past two centuries, particularly burning coal, oil and natural gas, have led to a temperature increase of nearly 1.5 degrees Celsius. He predicted that 2023 would be recorded as the hottest year in history, with 2024 potentially being even warmer.
Kurnaz expressed concern about the intensification and frequency of extreme weather events in Türkiye, including droughts and lake desiccation, alongside the potential rise in pandemic diseases, sea-level rise and mass migrations. He emphasized that Türkiye’s role in greenhouse gas emissions is relatively limited, yet the country must urgently begin to take preventative measures against global warming disasters.
He criticized the reliance on fossil fuels, arguing that Türkiye is in an advantageous position regarding renewable energy sources like solar, wind and geothermal. A development strategy focused on renewables would be more sustainable and economically viable.
