Viral rumors of impending disaster stemming from a comic book prediction have taken the sheen off Japan's tourism boom, with some airlines canceling flights from Hong Kong, where passenger numbers have plunged.
Japan has seen record numbers of visitors this year, with April setting an all-time monthly high of 3.9 million travelers.
That dipped in May, however, with arrivals from Hong Kong – the superstitious Chinese-controlled city where the rumors have circulated widely – down 11% year-over-year, according to the latest data.
Steve Huen of Hong Kong-based travel agency EGL Tours blamed a flurry of social media predictions tied to a manga that depicts a dream of a massive earthquake and tsunami hitting Japan and neighbouring countries in July 2025.
"The rumors have had a significant impact," said Huen, adding that his firm had seen its Japan-related business halve. Discounts and the introduction of earthquake insurance had "prevented Japan-bound travel from dropping to zero," he added.
Hong Kong resident Branden Choi, 28, said he was a frequent traveler to Japan but was hesitant to visit the country during July and August due to the manga prediction. "If possible, I might delay my trip and go after September," he said.
Ryo Tatsuki, the artist behind the manga titled "The Future I Saw," first published in 1999 and then rereleased in 2021, has tried to dampen the speculation, saying in a statement issued by her publisher that she was "not a prophet."
The first edition of the manga warned of a major natural disaster in March 2011. That was the month and year when a massive earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disaster struck Japan's northeastern coast, killing thousands.
Some have interpreted the latest edition as predicting that a catastrophic event would occur specifically on July 5, 2025, although Tatsuki has denied this.
Situated within the Pacific Ocean's "Ring of Fire," Japan is one of the most earthquake-prone countries in the world. In recent days, there have been more than 900 earthquakes, most of them small tremors, on islands off the southern tip of Kyushu.
But Robert Geller, a professor at the University of Tokyo who has studied seismology since 1971, said even scientifically based earthquake prediction was "impossible."
"None of the predictions I've experienced in my scientific career have come close at all," he said.
Nevertheless, low-cost carrier Greater Bay Airlines became the latest Hong Kong airline on Wednesday to cancel flights to Japan due to low demand, stating that it would indefinitely suspend its service to Tokushima in western Japan, effective from September.
Serena Peng, 30, a visitor to Tokyo from Seattle, had initially tried to talk her husband out of visiting Japan after seeing the social media speculation.
"I'm not super worried right now, but I was before," she said, speaking outside Tokyo's bustling Senso-ji temple.
