Türkiye is steadily advancing on its path to becoming a regional power. As the United States has profoundly shaken the European states, a deep security crisis has emerged in Europe. Although the security crisis among European states is interpreted through the Russian-Ukrainian war, they had already felt its roots during U.S. President Donald Trump’s first term. Europeans, whether consciously or not, have been pushed to seek new alliances.
Since the Ottoman era, Cyprus has held a strategic position as a maritime hub in the Mediterranean, making it exceptionally significant for both European states and Türkiye.
Over time, the status of Cyprus has been frequently debated. Notably, in 2004, the Kofi Annan Plan – a referendum aimed at establishing a unified state between the Turkish Cypriots and the Greek Cypriots – sought to outline a framework for coexistence. Ultimately, the Turkish side approved the plan, while the Greek Cypriots rejected it.
In the same year, the Greek Cypriot administration gained full membership in the European Union, effectively endorsing the island’s division by European powers. While the Greek side integrated into the EU, the Turkish side was excluded.
The global geopolitical landscape has shifted so dramatically that Cyprus' aspiration to join the EU is now being reconsidered.
Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) President Ersin Tatar has demonstrated remarkable success, securing the presidency in the recent Cypriot elections. Following his victory, he introduced the concept of a two-state solution, a stance that Türkiye now strongly supports.
According to a recent survey conducted by our GENAR Research in Cyprus, 70% of the population views the two-state solution favorably. Additionally, the reopening of Varosha (Maras) has been met with widespread approval.
Despite the wear and tear of governance and some criticism, Tatar appears to maintain significant influence in Cyprus, positioning himself strongly for future electoral success.
In recent times, a critical debate has emerged: While some Cypriot citizens still aspire to join the EU, Europe itself is rocking on the brink of fragmentation. European states are increasingly seeking individual dialogues with the Republic of Türkiye.
The visit of Poland’s president to Türkiye and the series of meetings between various European leaders and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan underscore a fascinating geopolitical shift. As one commentator recently noted, “When Erdoğan first came to power, Türkiye was almost dependent on the European Union. Two decades later, particularly in matters of security, many European states now find themselves reliant on Türkiye.”
In the coming months, Cyprus will hold another election, likely contested between two factions: one aligned with Türkiye’s growing regional influence in the Mediterranean and the other firmly tied to European interests and the EU.
History shows that during times of Greek influence and occupation in Cyprus, European states provided little support. Therefore, Cypriots need not prioritize EU integration as a domestic policy goal – especially now, as Europe increasingly seeks Türkiye’s cooperation.
Despite domestic opposition in Türkiye obscuring some of its achievements – whether in security, defense industries, health care or transportation – the world is closely watching Türkiye. Nations are eager to establish partnerships with Türkiye and align themselves with its rising influence.
As the elections approach and thereafter, in my opinion, Tatar will continue to chart a course for Cyprus’s presence in the Eastern Mediterranean, emphasizing a two-state solution and a strong alliance with Türkiye. I am confident that the Cypriot people will forge a vision of economic strength through their resilience and heroism, closer ties with Türkiye and commercial prosperity.
The Turkish Cypriot community has waged a great struggle to achieve its independence and has written a heroic history with the 1974 Peace Operation. The spirit of independence is ingrained in the Turkish nation’s DNA. While we will undoubtedly maintain relations with European and Western states. I firmly believe in the enduring viability of a two-state solution anchored by a strong Türkiye and a resilient Cyprus.
As a leader directly chosen by the people, I am fully confident that Tatar will vigorously champion this cause.
