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The grain crisis as you know it

by Melih Altınok

Jul 14, 2022 - 12:05 am GMT+3
A farmer reacts as he looks at his burning field caused by the fighting at the front line in the Dnipropetrovsk region, Ukraine, July 4, 2022. (AP Photo)
A farmer reacts as he looks at his burning field caused by the fighting at the front line in the Dnipropetrovsk region, Ukraine, July 4, 2022. (AP Photo)
by Melih Altınok Jul 14, 2022 12:05 am

The coming winter will be brutal for countries that depend on natural gas, especially Europe. If energy prices continue to rise at this rate, we are likely to crave for the last winter. Inflation all over the world is also climbing rapidly. Housing with facilities is turning into a luxury. The bottleneck in the supply of most basic foods such as grain, which feeds millions, is more frightening. If we look at the global mainstream media, the danger of famine is at hand!

Can you imagine? The world's most produced and consumed grain is treated like gold these days. From the U.N. to the stock markets, everyone's eyes were on the recent "grain corridor" talks held between the delegations of Turkey, Russia and Ukraine. The current negotiations aim to release 20 million tons of grain, which could not be put into commercial circulation due to the Russia-Ukraine war, through Turkey via Ankara's mediation.

Over 700 million tons of grains are produced annually in the world. Nearly 200 million tons of this are in stock. So how does 20 million tons of Ukrainian grain create a tsunami effect in this huge market? Bread doubles with pasta prices? Can we even talk about the "grain crisis?" The answer to this question is the choice to show Russia's invasion of Ukraine as the cause of all the negativities because this excuse is a popular cover to hide the consequences of the state of emergency engulfing the world since the coronavirus pandemic began.

Efforts are made to hide the fact that the lockdown for 400 days is the primary reason for the global economic bottleneck we are experiencing today, from the supply chain disruption to basic travel, education, and working rights.

However, this result was not a surprise. All serious economists were saying that the cost of the lockdown would be high and that it would not be possible for states to return economic life to normal by printing money and offering subsidies.

But now, the trust of people has been shaken all over the world. The atmosphere of uncertainty and pessimism has been perpetuated. People who can't see their future are shaking the global economy with panic and unpredictable reflexes. For example, this is why people who think there will be a re-closure in the autumn due to the extreme pandemic measures taken by China flock to the banks and the system is locked.

Panic is the main problem in the grain issue, where we suffer from "absence within the grain." World leaders panicked when the "we will starve" propaganda started because the shipment of 20 million tons of Ukrainian grain was disrupted. While India, one of the world's leading grain producers, limited its exports even though there was no problem in supply, China started to stock up. This had a domino effect and markets reported a shortage of grains.

Just as worthless plastic masks were sold at the price of jewelry in the rush of the pandemic and fell into the black market.

So what's the solution? The elimination of the global emergency started with the pandemic as soon as possible, with all its practices and prohibitions. Normalizing collective psychology and ending interventions to let the natural hand that regulates the market do its job?

But is it possible? It is certain that it will not be easy when you look at the authorities, such as the World Health Organization (WHO), which talk about pandemic measures by using summer flu cases as an excuse, and who make the base of the closure in the fall.

But we have to. Otherwise, we will miss even 2022, which was a difficult year.

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