There is an expression attributed to the great Chinese strategist Sun Tzu: Wars are won and lost with allies.
As the unipolar world comes to an end and the footsteps of a multipolar world grow increasingly audible, one question asked more often is whether World War III has already begun. My view is that it has. But this is not a war directly between the great powers. In one sense, it is a proxy war – but not the kind of proxy war conducted by smaller actors, as Iran has done, for example, or the kind once organized by the U.S. through groups such as Daesh and al-Qaida.
Today, Ukraine is fighting the proxy war against Russia on behalf of the U.S. and the West. And, in a twist of fate, Iran has, in a sense, become the country fighting a proxy war on behalf of China and Russia as well. As the footsteps of a World War III grow louder, proxy warfare also appears to be expanding in scale.
If we proceed from the Chinese strategist’s thesis – that wars are won and lost with allies – Iran is fighting a war against Israel and the U.S. And it appears that the initial hypothesis put forward by the U.S. and Israel has not come true. That is, the attempts to bring down the Iranian regime or to invade Iran are unlikely to produce the intended results.
Consider what happened in Afghanistan. When the Soviet Union was fighting its war there, the U.S. backed Afghanistan, with the support of Islamic countries, and ultimately helped bring about the collapse of the Soviet Union. Yet, when the U.S. itself remained in Afghanistan as an occupying power for 20 years, it eventually withdrew without achieving its objectives. Likewise, today, Russia, as an empire, is stuck in Ukraine. In reality, the Western states are fighting their war against Russia through Ukraine.
There is a similar problem in the case of Israel. Israel has dragged the U.S. into a war that was not one Washington entered into as part of its own strategic plan. It was a war that directly served Israel’s objectives, and the American people are facing the cost of it – from food to gasoline prices and in many other areas. The burden of this war is being felt by the American public.
In fact, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s war policy has increased tension and conflict between Israel and the U.S.
The question of how much support China is giving Iran is, of course, difficult to answer. China does not fully disclose the extent of the support it has provided to Iran, and, in a sense, it is understandable that it does not. Western states have themselves supported numerous groups and countries involved in conflicts around the world.
There have even been cases involving terrorist organizations such as Daesh and al-Qaida, which Western states first supported and later identified as enemies and fought against. Western states have considerable experience in this regard.
China, too, has found an opportunity in the U.S.-Iran war. Beijing knows that the longer this war continues, the more the U.S. will be worn down.
On the other hand, the war with Iran has become a test of the limits of American power. We see that U.S. military power is not proving as decisive as expected against a state that has accumulated a substantial stockpile of missiles. Israel, for its part, lacks anything comparable in strategic depth and military capacity.
Therefore, China will, through whatever indirect means are available, provide Iran with as much support as it can, helping Iran strengthen its position and, in turn, making it more difficult for the U.S. to succeed.
As the U.S. cannot invade Iran and cannot bring down the Iranian regime, it appears that China will continue to stand behind Iran, while Russia will provide more sophisticated forms of support – just as Iran supported Russia during the war in Ukraine.
In other words, even before a World War III fully emerges, the scale of proxy wars has expanded. Ukraine and Iran have increasingly, and actually voluntarily, become countries fighting proxy wars against major powers.
As the issue becomes even more complicated with the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, I believe that Türkiye, which seeks to establish a regional order in its own region, will provide sophisticated support to Yemen in the coming period, as it has done in other regions where it has become involved, and that this will help resolve the Bab el-Mandeb issue.
Whatever the circumstances, however, China will continue to stand behind Iran and will seek to preserve the opportunity it has gained to weaken the U.S. Consequently, the longer it takes for the U.S. to turn its attention away from Asia and the Asia-Pacific, the greater strategic advantage this will represent for China.
In other words, as Sun Tzu said, wars are won and lost with allies – and China will continue to stand behind Iran as its ally.
