It is no secret that the current situation in Ukraine holds significant implications for the country's future and also has the potential to impact Europe's security. This importance is magnified by the timing: approximately two months have passed since Kyiv initiated its counteroffensive. As autumn approaches, the challenge intensifies due to the onset of the rainy season, which renders progress extremely challenging in muddy conditions. Conversely, the upcoming spring coincides with the U.S. presidential elections, diverting Washington's attention.
Just a few days after the conclusion of the NATO summit in Vilnius, the capital of Lithuania, Ukraine intensified its attack on Russian forces in both the eastern and southern parts of the country. This was contrasted with initial perceptions of a slower start, as observed by many political and media sources. Contrary to all expectations, the Ukrainian counteroffensive was launched last June, which raised questions about the second stage of the counteroffensive following the arrangements of the NATO summit.
Shortly after the conclusion of the NATO summit in Vilnius, the capital of Lithuania, Ukraine escalated its offensive against Russian forces in both the eastern and southern parts of the country. This contrasted with initial perceptions of a slower start as observed by numerous political and media sources. The unexpected pace of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in June prompted questions about the subsequent stages of the operation in light of the NATO summit's discussions.
The choice of Lithuania as the host for the annual summit of NATO's 31 member nations last month conveyed a strategic message. The choice of a location bordering Russia and Belarus adds an additional layer of significance to the summit's deliberations.
Although Ukraine is the top priority of the summit, the talks resulted in additional commitments to NATO's eastern flank, at a time when the alliance's regional leaders are expressing concern about the apparent relocation of elements of the Russian Wagner group to Belarus, and the alliance said in its statement that it will closely monitor developments in Belarus, in particular the possible deployment of private military companies.
The Lithuanian summit was held a year after the historic Madrid summit when the NATO allies agreed on a new strategic concept, which described Russia as a direct threat and developed a new Advanced Defense Strategy to deter Moscow, where the alliance statement stressed that the allies will continue to work closely together to address, what they described, the threats and challenges posed by Russia. The statement considered that Russia represents the most significant direct threat to the security of NATO allies and to peace in the Euro-Atlantic region, and the Russian Foreign Ministry responded to the statement: "NATO returned to the behaviors of the Cold War era."
While Ukraine is waging a major counterattack, the focus of everyone's attention was how much the Vilnius summit affected the war, as well as the broader security in Europe and beyond. Western countries have responded to Ukraine's request for military assistance, even if at times it was much slower and less than Kyiv would like, but the war also revealed the limited ability of countries to enter into a large-scale conflict, and today the allies are racing to refill empty arsenals.
Ukraine demanded two things at the Vilnius summit: more heavy weapons and NATO's commitment to Kyiv's future membership beyond the firm and at the same time vague pledge that the country would one day be admitted to the alliance.
Russia's military offensive against Ukraine has pushed Kyiv to increase its ambitions to join both NATO and the European Union, with Ukrainian leaders realizing that membership is unpredictable in light of the ongoing battles with Russia, but Kyiv urges NATO allies to provide a concrete path to full accession, and Ukraine applied last year for urgent membership in NATO, seven months after Russia launched what it calls a special military operation in Ukraine.
Kyiv has made gains at the table, which are considered advanced steps on the way to help it withstand more in the face of Russia, after the alliance approved more security guarantees and military assistance, and the formation of the "NATO-Ukraine" Council.
Seventy-four years after its founding, in addition to the direct challenge to Moscow and Kyiv's support in its fateful war, NATO has another conflict with China under the guise of competition, which has its own significance and lies mainly outside the historical scope of NATO.
Concerns about Chinese behavior, including its deep alliance with Moscow, took a secondary place after Ukraine at the meeting of NATO leaders, but past summits indicate that NATO knows that it cannot ignore China's thorny issues in the long run.
The Vilnius summit was held in the presence of Finland for the first time since its official accession earlier this year, in addition to removing what can be considered the message of the division of the allies by the failure of Sweden's accession, and the summit appeared more successful than any party expected, especially after Türkiye's approval of Sweden's accession to NATO, matters have been resolved even in a "preliminary" way and only the time factor remains.
It remains to say, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from the Lithuanian summit did not get everything he expected in his plans, but he got a lot, given the disagreement over the timing of Kipf's accession to NATO, with some allies fearing any steps that might put NATO in a situation closer to a direct war with Russia.
*Researcher, political adviser
