Weeks have passed since Iran launched a barrage of 200 missiles into Israel on Oct. 1, 2024. In the wake of this assault, the world watches as Israel, while vowing to retaliate, remains strategically silent. Many are left wondering why Israel hasn't struck back yet.
This missile attack came after a series of high-profile assassinations, including Hassan Nasrallah, the Hezbollah leader; Brig. Gen. Abbas Nilforoushan of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC); and Ismail Haniyeh, a key Hamas political figure. In retaliation, Iran launched missiles targeting Israel. Despite Iran’s aggression, Israel's response has been delayed, leaving the global community speculating on the reasons for this measured approach.
Biden's administration has expressed concerns about the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, urging caution to prevent a potential all-out war in the Middle East. With the U.S. elections approaching, President Biden is eager to avoid new conflicts that could destabilize the region and send global oil prices soaring. Washington has advised Israel against immediate strikes on Iran’s nuclear or oil infrastructure, fearing it could provoke a dangerous cycle of retaliation.
Israel’s delayed response is primarily due to its focus on another pressing threat, Hezbollah. Currently engaged in conflict along its southern border, Tel Aviv is working to dismantle Hezbollah’s military capabilities and sever its connection to Iran. By weakening Hezbollah, a key Iranian ally, Israel is indirectly undermining Iran’s regional influence. Israel’s goal currently is to reduce Hezbollah's military capacity, intelligence capabilities and human resources.
This strategy allows Israel to concentrate on one front at a time, preventing a two-front war with Hezbollah and Iran simultaneously. The psychological impact of delaying the retaliation also keeps Iran in a state of anticipation, adding pressure on its government and people. Israel is aware that Iran is expecting a painful response, which is creating a highly stressful situation for both the Iranian people and the government. Every day, they wonder whether Tel Aviv will retaliate today, tomorrow or the next day. This ongoing uncertainty is part of Israel’s strategy, and it works in their favor. The psychological pressure and the constant anticipation of an Israeli response are a form of warfare, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu likely sees this as advantageous.
Israel’s broader goal is to weaken all of Iran’s regional allies and proxies – Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis in Yemen and other groups across the Middle East – before turning its full attention to Iran. By systematically diminishing these groups' influence, Israel hopes to isolate Iran and reduce its capacity for retaliation when the time for a direct strike comes.
Iran, meanwhile, is attempting to de-escalate tensions through diplomatic channels. Using mediators such as Qatar and Saudi Arabia, Iran has sent messages to Israel and the U.S. in hopes of preventing further military action.
Iran is in a difficult position, hoping to remove economic sanctions and restart negotiations with the U.S. to revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). However, as long as the tension remains high, it will prevent Iran from making any diplomatic progress in the region. This ongoing pressure and uncertainty disrupt Iran's ability to approach the U.S. for negotiations, which plays directly into Netanyahu's hands, as a leader of the closest ally of the U.S.
Israel’s response to Iran’s missile attack is inevitable, but the timing will depend on when it is most advantageous for Israel. For now, Israel is leveraging its alliances and psychological warfare to keep Iran on edge. The world should expect Israel to retaliate on its own terms when it can strike with maximum impact and minimal risk.
In the meantime, Israel is strategically weakening Iran's influence in the region, preparing for a future confrontation that will unfold only when it is tactically sound for Israel.
If Israel retaliates now, it will be a restricted response. However, it may opt for a broader retaliation in the future, once it has effectively weakened Hezbollah. At that point, Israel could approach Iran with greater confidence and better timing, allowing them to act with a clearer strategic mindset.
Some analysts believe Israel is unlikely to strike Iran before the U.S. presidential election because it could negatively impact the Biden-Harris administration. If tensions escalate, Trump might use the situation to his advantage, criticizing Democrats for their handling of Middle East conflicts. In the meantime, Israel is strengthening its defense by deploying the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system, which is highly effective against ballistic missiles. This move helps safeguard Israel against potential Iranian retaliation while the political situation unfolds in the U.S.
