Muslim Americans' voting patterns have long reflected their views on U.S. political policies, particularly in areas like immigration and foreign affairs. As the third-largest religious group in the nation, with around 4.45 million followers, their electoral influence is especially significant in key swing states. In 2020, many Muslim voters distanced themselves from Donald Trump, citing his policies like the Muslim ban and his decision to recognize Jerusalem as Israel's capital. A 2016 Pew Research study found that three-quarters of Muslim voters supported Hillary Clinton. By 2020, many backed Joe Biden, helping him secure victories in battlegrounds such as Michigan and Minnesota.
The 2024 political landscape, however, is showing signs of change. A recent Rainey Center poll indicates that almost one-third of Muslim voters now favor Trump, a marked increase from the 23% he captured in 2020.
Amid ongoing conflict in Gaza, the Biden-Harris administration has faced challenges in managing U.S. foreign policy. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has resisted cease-fire efforts, and the war has left more than 41,000 Palestinians dead, with tens of thousands injured and large sections of Gaza in ruins. Arab and Muslim Americans, particularly in swing states, have expressed frustration, accusing the administration of neglecting Palestinian rights and failing to address the humanitarian crisis adequately.
In response, Vice President Kamala Harris's campaign has made efforts to reconnect with these communities. Advisors such as Nasrina Bargzie and Ilan Goldenberg have been brought on to boost outreach to Arab American voters. At the same time, Egyptian American lawyer Brenda Abdelall works to strengthen ties with the broader Arab American population. Harris has called for an immediate cease-fire, acknowledging the political risks of the ongoing conflict. However, Netanyahu's reluctance to end the war bolsters Trump’s campaign.
Trump, for his part, has stood firmly by Israel, from moving the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem to recognizing the Golan Heights as part of Israel – stances that have solidified his support among pro-Israel voters. His administration's role in the Abraham Accords, which normalized relations between Israel and several Gulf states and his tacit approval of illegal West Bank settlements, have further strengthened these ties. Some argue that Netanyahu is prolonging the conflict, seeing an extended war as advantageous for Trump by weakening the Democrats.
Discontent is not limited to Muslim and Arab voters. A growing number of Americans, across faiths, are increasingly frustrated by the administration’s struggles in the Middle East. As swing states like Michigan become more pivotal, the Biden-Harris team faces the risk of losing support from a broader base disillusioned by the ongoing conflict.
The war remains a key issue as the election nears, with Trump's campaign seemingly benefiting from the prolonged cease-fire delay. During a recent debate, Harris emphasized the urgent need to end the war, stating, "This war must end immediately." Trump, on the other hand, criticized the Biden administration for restraining Israel, insisting they should be allowed to "finish the job" in June. This sharp divide between Harris's call for peace and Trump's more aggressive stance has shaped the race. Trump further sought to distance Arab voters from Harris, claiming in a September debate that she "hates the Arab population" and warning of further devastation in the region.
