Following the end of the Cold War, the global system gradually evolved into a multipolar structure, prompting international actors to adapt their foreign policy strategies to this emerging reality. Notably, under the leadership of Vladimir Putin, Russia has been pursuing a sophisticated strategy aimed at identifying ideological, political and personal "fracture points" within the Western bloc and turning them into opportunities that serve its geopolitical interests.
This process did not begin overnight; it notably gained momentum with Donald Trump's rise to the U.S. presidency. Systemic ruptures began to create openings for shifts in alliances and partnerships. Russia is attempting to exploit the fractures reflected in U.S. domestic politics and the cracks within the trans-Atlantic alliance, which will deepen the multipolar landscape and enable it to normalize its strategic maneuvers.
Most recently, the escalating tension between Trump and tech billionaire Elon Musk, which has implications not only for American politics but also for the broader global system, serves as a compelling case study to understand how Russia's strategic approach operates. This conflict is not merely an ego battle between two influential figures but rather the latest and perhaps most fertile ground for Russia's ongoing strategy to undermine Western unity and stability.
Trump's election in 2016 marked a pivotal moment for Russia's strategic outlook. Trump represented a different profile compared to typical American presidents. He even initiated talks with North Korea. His "America First" policy shook the foundations of traditional U.S. foreign policy, and his labelling of NATO as "obsolete" served as a signal to Russia regarding the weakening of the trans-Atlantic alliance.
Indeed, the possibility of a second Trump presidency was seen by Russia as a beacon of hope during the war's most challenging phase. Trump's trade wars with European allies within the NATO framework, along with his declarations suggesting that the U.S. might not uphold its security commitments, triggered the most significant trans-Atlantic rupture since the end of the Cold War. At the same time, meetings began between Russia and the U.S. in Riyadh, steps that Russia hoped would lead to a process of normalization. This issue was the scenario Russia had long desired: The Western bloc was cracking from within.
Trump's alliance with Musk in his new term drew significant attention, not only within U.S. domestic politics but also across the global system. However, this partnership did not endure. The divergence in their strategic goals ultimately led to a highly publicized rupture between the two figures.
Although Musk was appointed as head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), becoming formally involved in the Trump administration, the misalignment of objectives quickly undermined the alliance. It collapsed due to both ideological and personal differences. This public clash between Musk and Trump should not be viewed merely as a personal or political dispute; instead, it should be understood within the broader framework of state-capital-technological power dynamics.
The core of the tension lies in Musk’s increasing dominance over systemic infrastructures, particularly through his control of the social media platform X and strategic systems like Starlink. Musk’s vocal criticism of Trump’s defense and budget policies was met with Trump calling him a “mad billionaire,” signaling growing institutional disarray and rhetorical confrontation within the U.S. This development heralds a new phase in which tech-driven strategic actors may challenge state authority. Simultaneously, the collapse of this alliance has opened up a more complex yet opportunity-rich domain for Russia’s strategic moves.
The conflict between Musk and Trump presents a significant opportunity for Russia, particularly in the context of the ongoing war. Although Russia has already seized the moment of fracturing, this development may further strengthen its hand in the domains of intelligence and communications, potentially positioning the global system to become more dependent on Russia in these areas.
Recognizing this, Russia has issued notable public statements inviting Musk to engage in dialogue. Moreover, the recent visit of Musk’s father to Moscow has drawn attention and should be viewed within this strategic context. The reason this is considered a critical development lies in the strategic impact of Starlink in Ukraine. Starlink’s support of Ukrainian military communications has demonstrated the vital role satellite internet plays in modern warfare and geopolitical competition. At this point, Russia may accelerate efforts to operationalize its long-planned but slowly progressing global satellite internet initiative, known as either Soyuz or the Sfera Project. Such a move would aim to reduce Russia’s reliance on U.S.-based systems for both military and civilian communications while also creating a strategic counterweight to Western attempts to maintain communication dominance over allied nations.
It is essential to note that although Soyuz may not be fully competitive with Starlink in terms of technology, it could still provide Russia and its allies with a crucial operational and intelligence-sharing platform. While Soyuz remains one of the world’s most reliable systems for human spaceflight, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 led the European Space Agency (ESA) to suspend its collaboration with Roscosmos, including halting the joint ExoMars mission. Moreover, within the framework of multipolarity and the emerging space-politics competition, it is also possible to identify China, Russia’s strategic ally, as a key player. China's Shenzhou capsule and Tiangong Space Station should likewise be considered among the viable alternative systems.
In conclusion, it can be said that Russia, particularly during Trump's second presidential term, has been skillfully pursuing a strategy of turning critical moments of rupture in the international system into strategic opportunities. Trump's distancing from NATO, the technological and ideological divisions within the U.S., and, most recently, the Musk-Trump conflict all serve to encourage Moscow's approach of using systemic fractures to open up new areas for strategic expansion.
Such fractures may mark periods during which Russia repositions itself not only politically but also through defense and strategic communication tools. Indeed, while negotiations at the table, mediated by Türkiye, continue in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, it is evident that both sides are simultaneously persisting with military confrontations on the ground. Therefore, each phase of the global system's evolution toward multipolarity strengthens Russia's pursuit of "open-door" opportunities, not only in foreign policy but also in technological and strategic spheres.
