The most bizarre aspect of the ongoing situation in Ukraine is not that Moscow went ahead with the atrocities, as heinous as they may be – after all it is sad but not unheard of for Russia to flex its military muscles. What is truly frightening is the complete absence of foresight and analysis from Western capitals including in Washington. Did those elected office holders really think Russia's President Vladimir Putin was devising a new kind of board game when amassing troops all over the place just outside Ukrainian territory? Did they watch, clueless, assuming that Putin was engaging in an internet game like Forge of Empires but would never seriously think of invading in real-time?
And now innocent Ukrainian citizens are suffering.
There are four initial sets of actors who could at least in theory make Putin end the aggression. Let us discuss all four in brief before we talk about another fifth and altogether more promising set of actors.
First, there are individual European nation states such as Germany and the United Kingdom, clear political heavyweights. Under normal circumstances Moscow would not want to annoy any of them. Berlin in particular and a number of social democrat politicians have always maintained close personal ties with Russian leaders. The overarching aim shifted from making sure there can never be any war on European soil again, to establishing relations ranging from student exchanges to the economy and finance. Now Moscow stepped over the red line – hence, will Berlin, London and of course Paris, too, step up and risk an open confrontation with Moscow? On the other hand, there is Washington, in former times perceived as the world’s police officer. Actually, Washington always accepted being in such a controlling role instead of the wider world pushing for it. Former U.S. President Donald Trump gone, Joe Biden in ... it seems highly unrealistic to expect any decisive response from North America.
Second, there is the European Union. Still soul searching after Brexit became a reality, it seems unlikely that the EU will speak with one voice. Even if such a "one voice" strategy could be hammered out it would never include any military option.
Third, we have NATO. NATO by definition is a defense alliance and not a war machine. NATO has started to increase its presence closer to Russian territory and will continue to do so. But would NATO really engage in an outright military response? Technically speaking, it could only do so if a member state of the alliance is attacked by Russian troops. But we shall return to NATO further below.
And fourth, there is the United Nations. Many times before the U.N., including the U.N. Security Council (UNSC), failed to find a solution to a conflict that emerged someplace in the world. The U.N. is a perfect place for endless debates, but apparently not a perfect place for ending conflicts.
Four sets of actors: Powerful actors such as Berlin and London will in all likelihood refrain from any active military support for Ukraine. Washington under a supposedly less decisive leader than before with Trump no longer at the helm ... Your guess is as good as mine. The EU will issue statements but not send in the troops either – there is no EU army. NATO is a defense alliance and not a body that would go into another country’s territory, ever more so if it is not a member state of that very alliance, and only if it were attacked. No further comment needed with regards to the U.N.
Result? No options except for imposing economic sanctions on Russia including freezing assets of wealthy individuals?
And rest assured, Putin knew about all these constraints. But here comes the interesting news: By only looking West including across the North Atlantic and detecting weakness both of a logistical as well as military dimension, Moscow may have made a serious error.
The fact is, there are many other states that are completely unhappy about Russia invading Ukraine and these are no lightweight political actors.
I would not be surprised if China approaches Moscow to immediately end the aggression. I would not be surprised if other nations follow suit including Japan and Pakistan. But there is one country in particular that should become the focus of Putin’s attention or, shall we say, worries: Turkey.
Ankara clearly stated that it is against the recent Russian aggression towards Ukraine. Turkey has an ever-increasing standing among Muslim nations. But Turkey has an ever-increasing standing in many further parts of the world, too. Turkey as a NATO member is off limits for Putin and can thus act confidently in condemning Putin’s invasion. Out of all the actors cited above, only NATO has the theoretical capabilities to make certain Putin could not go nowhere else after Ukraine.
Putin will not bow to economic sanctions, at least not in the short-term. No one is in favor of attempting an open military confrontation with Russia either. Hence there is only one last option: diplomacy. Face-to-face meetings must be held explaining to Putin that even if he manages to replace the current leader in Ukraine it is only his reputation that will suffer. It is Russia’s reputation that will suffer. In a post-pandemic world, every nation needs confidence in the future having realized no one nation alone can fight a pandemic. No one nation alone can play the warmonger either, anymore. Wars must become a thing of the past.
Let NATO in on the suggestion from Turkey to unite and act in unison vis-a-vis Moscow; let Turkey and other nations including Germany try to talk with Putin, just this once and perhaps for a last time. But more innocent citizens of Ukraine losing their precious lives is no alternative.
As we said in the spot: sitting idle and shrugging it all off is not an option for the free world.