Türkiye has an important nation-building project in Syria. In addition to the sanctions and the economic hurdles, security is a main issue. The tragic events on the Syrian coast are not a one-off episode. The remnants of the Assad regime, Israeli forces and Iran's proxies have an interest in creating disturbances in Syria. Türkiye's national security establishment should realize that managing Syria’s security starts with Lebanon.
Syria is the lifeline of Hezbollah. Naim Qasem, the group secretary general, admitted that the fall of regime leader Bashar Assad will disrupt their line of arms supply. The skirmishes on the Lebanese-Syrian borders are not random. Hezbollah is trying to break its isolation. The airport and the sea are monitored by the committee set up after the cease-fire, hence Hezbollah has no longer access to them. This is why it is trying to keep a clandestine route via Syria.
Iran has a project to destabilize Syria. Hezbollah is part of this project. Though Hezbollah is weakened, it still has enough power to create a serious nuisance to the nascent state in Syria. Türkiye has been looking at Iraq in order to preserve the security of Syria. However, they need to start looking more carefully at Lebanon.
In addition to Hezbollah's possible destabilizing activities, Lebanon needs to remain stable for Syria to be stable. This is why Lebanon should be taking priority on the Turkish Foreign Ministry’s agenda. The current Israeli presence is a recipe for a civil war. People from the south are angry. Some 100,000 housing units have been destroyed. The zone adjacent to Israel looks very much like Gaza. As long as the Israelis are stationed in Lebanon, the displaced cannot go back home and there will be no reconstruction.
Anger is rising among the southerners who feel abandoned. The Lebanese state, under the supervision of the U.S. and as stated by the cease-fire agreement, does not allow Hezbollah to receive funds from Iran. Hence, Hezbollah cannot help them financially. At the same time, they don’t feel the state is doing enough to help them. The Lebanese state is banking on diplomatic efforts to drive Israel to leave Lebanon. However, diplomatic effort without hard power is futile and the Trump administration is totally aligned with Netanyahu. This anger can result in an internal clash, especially since several factions are blaming Hezbollah for the calamity Lebanon is facing.
In order to avoid an internal confrontation and possibly a civil war, people should be able to go back to their homes and reconstruction should start. The Lebanese state should seal a deal with Hezbollah. The group cannot continue as an armed militia. They need to surrender their arms to the Lebanese armed forces. At the same time, the state should give them guarantees. They need guarantees that once they disarm, Israel will not eliminate them. They need a guarantee that once they lay down their arms, they can continue as a political party.
Recent history in the region has shown us that those who gave up their arms were signing their death warrant. Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein and Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi were bombed after they complied and disarmed. In Lebanon, after Lebanese forces gave up their arms, as a result of the Taif agreement, the Lebanese army went after them and finished them off. Their leader was unjustly put in prison for numerous years.
In the current conditions, the Lebanese state cannot offer any of those guarantees. Hence, it needs a guarantor, one that has the power to enforce any decision taken. Türkiye can play the role of this guarantor. The good news is that Türkiye and Saudi Arabia are aligned on Syria. The relationship has moved from competition to cooperation in order to ensure the stability of the country and, more broadly, the region. Saudi Arabia has hosted a meeting between the Syrian and Lebanese ministers of defense. The meeting goal is to agree and find a modus operandi for border control. Türkiye should offer to be the security guarantor in Lebanon, in coordination with Saudi Arabia.
Lebanon is a sovereign state, and it can ask another state for help. It can ask another state to deploy its forces. This can create a deterrent against Israel and put pressure on the Israelis to withdraw. More importantly, a Turkish presence can make sure that Israel does not continuously violate Lebanon's sovereignty and invade its airspace. Once Israel withdraws, the Lebanese state can prove to the Lebanese people that it is strong, capable and trustworthy. At the same time, a Turkish presence can supplement the efforts of the Lebanese Armed Forces and the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) in keeping Hezbollah in check and making sure it does not rearm.
Strategically, this is important for Türkiye as it opens another door for negotiating with Iran and making sure it relinquishes its plan to destabilize Syria. A Turkish-Lebanese agreement with a Saudi blessing is a win-win deal for both countries, and it is a solution that will appease the different Lebanese factions and prevent a civil war.
