As expected, Republican Donald Trump has won the U.S. presidential election once again. During my one year of observing American society since arriving in the U.S. in Oct. 2023, I believed for most of the time that Trump would win the 2024 presidential election. The only time I had doubts was in the 20 days after Vice President Kamala Harris was announced as the candidate to succeed President Joe Biden in the presidential election.
On Nov. 6, a spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated, "We respect the choice of the American people and extend our congratulations to Mr. Trump on his election as president." On Nov. 7, Chinese President Xi Jinping sent a congratulatory message to U.S. President-elect Donald Trump.
Like many other countries, China has been paying close attention to the U.S. election, especially against the backdrop of the worsening perception of China within the U.S. The Pew Research Center conducted surveys among U.S. adults in 2007, 2014 and 2019 to determine who they perceived as the greatest threat to the United States. The results showed that China ranked third in 2007, second in 2014 and tied for first place with Russia in 2019. In a similar survey conducted from May 30 to June 4, 2023, the Pew Research Center found that as many as 50% of respondents viewed China as the top threat to the U.S., while only 17% considered Russia as the primary threat.
Some Chinese scholars believe that regardless of whether Trump or Harris won the election, the U.S. policy objectives toward China would remain consistent, as containing and suppressing China has become a bipartisan consensus in the U.S. This perspective is very common in China, where there is a sense that the country has almost given up on any illusions about the U.S. It is foreseeable that U.S.-China confrontation will be difficult to avoid in the coming years.
It is well known that during Donald Trump's first presidential term, U.S.-China relations deteriorated sharply, marking a turning point after which China has been consistently regarded as the U.S.'s primary global competitor and even as an adversary. In the U.S., China has been portrayed in a very negative light. Judging from the Cabinet list nominated by President-elect Trump, there are quite a few people who are friendly to China.
It is particularly noteworthy that, unlike during Trump's first administration, in his second term, Trump no longer faces the pressure of running for reelection. Additionally, the Republican Party now controls both chambers of Congress, and the Supreme Court has a notably conservative lean. This dynamic means that President Trump’s personal influence is set to surpass that of his first term, making it easier for him to implement his established policies.
In fact, as Trump's chances of winning the election grew, the U.S. stock market responded positively. Notably, on the day after the election results came out, all three major U.S. stock indices rose sharply and set new historical highs. It can be said that the capital market has expressed its welcome to President Trump.
During Trump's first administration, the U.S. initiated a trade war with China, causing significant trouble for China in areas such as tariffs, technology and tech controls, trade protectionism, and academic exchanges. The second Trump administration is likely to continue these measures against China.
As a Chinese professor who just finished a one-year visiting scholar program in the U.S., I am pessimistic about the future of Sino-US academic exchanges. The FBI in the U.S. remains highly vigilant against scholars and even students from China, believing that many of them are spies for the Chinese Communist Party. I attended a lecture and a conference on this topic at the University of California, Berkeley, and felt this deeply.
This situation that began in the first Trump administration is still very obvious even in the Biden administration, and it can be expected to intensify under Trump's second term. On the other hand, some American scholars, including those specializing in Chinese studies, are increasingly cautious about traveling to China, fearing that once they are in China, they could easily find themselves in personal security difficulties.
U.S.-China relations currently suffer from a severe lack of mutual trust. What’s worse, due to the significant reduction in people-to-people exchanges and academic interactions, even scholars from both countries have evident misunderstandings of each other. If Chinese scholars haven’t conducted long-term fieldwork in the U.S. after 2017, their understanding of contemporary America will likely be deeply skewed. This is because the changes in U.S. policy toward China under Trump’s first administration were almost revolutionary, and American society itself has also undergone significant changes.
During the Biden administration, the world was increasingly seen as split into two camps, with the U.S. and its allies on one side and China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, etc. on the other. Given the severe impact of Trump’s first administration on U.S. relations with its allies, some in China believe that under a second Trump term, China’s foreign relations could improve somewhat. Specifically, there might be potential for better relations with Europe, Japan and South Korea.
Of course, this possibility cannot be ruled out. However, under the Biden administration, the U.S. and its allies have achieved significant consensus on their fundamental approach toward China, and this consensus, at least for now, seems unlikely to disappear in the short term. Under a second Trump administration, the friction and contradictions between the U.S. and its allies are likely to be fewer than during his first term.
In short, with Trump's return, the U.S. will likely focus even more on containing China, and the pressure China faces from the U.S. and its allies will increase if they believe some of China's policies need to be changed. However, China also has its own goals and is unlikely to easily submit to U.S. pressure. Whether China and the U.S. can find a relatively peaceful way to coexist is not only crucial for the two countries but also for the entire world.
