Report: Iran Nuclear Deal has potential to alter dynamics of the region
by Fatih Şemsettin Işık
ANKARAApr 13, 2015 - 12:00 am GMT+3
by Fatih Şemsettin Işık
Apr 13, 2015 12:00 am
The framework agreement, which was signed following nuclear talks between the P5+1 countries (the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council and Germany) and Iran, within the possible consequences regarding the domestic politics of Iran and regional issues, has been evaluated in a report published on April 4 by the Ankara-based SETA Foundation.
Entitled "Geopolitical Complexity, Nuclear Agreement between Iran and the West," the report stresses that this framework agreement has the potential to lead to many alterations and consequences in the Middle East by passing beyond being a nuclear energy issue.
Penned by the co-editors of the report, Kılıç Buğra Kanat and Abdullah Yegin, the experts remind the countries that fiercely criticised the process such as Israel, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries and stated "All of these countries might seek different patterns of politics, in case of a likely final agreement or following even the current agreement. Then, this might bring a new situation with regards to regional geopolitics."
Underlining the fact that the agreement inaugurates a new and difficult period in the domestic and foreign policy of the U.S., the report says that this agreement would inevitably create tension between President Barack Obama and the U.S. Congress by indicating the results of a poll taken by the Pew Research Center. It says "In case of a likely agreement with Iran, on the question of which institution should approve the agreement, 62 percent of the participants responded with Congress, while only 29 percent of the participants said the White House. These results indicate that Obama needs reasonable grounds for bypassing Congress in case of a final agreement with Iran."
Claiming that a final agreement would create a loss of confidence between the U.S. and Israel, the report also remarked that relations between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia and Gulf countries might be even influenced on the occasion of the final agreement. "Therefore, in order to maintain relations along the same line, it is necessary for the U.S. to take serious confidence-building measures in their relations with the Gulf countries. At this point, the dissidence between Saudi Arabia and the U.S. in Syria and the situation in Iraq would be at the top of the agenda." the report says.
The study also predicts that in the event of an agreement, "since Iran has the capability, opportunity and capacity to rapidly produce and export oil, the oil prices may drop."
Meanwhile, the study emphasizes that although the latest agreement between the P5+1 and Iran was no more than a framework agreement, it is accurate to infer that nothing is going to be the same in the region.