Türkiye’s influence in the international community is reflected in the Munich Security Report 2025, released ahead of the 61st Munich Security Conference, which will commence on Friday.
Entitled “Multipolarization,” the report delves into the consequences of the phenomenon. It is based on surveys conducted in Germany, the United States, Britain, France, Italy, Brazil, Japan, Canada, India, China and South Africa. The survey shows positive views of the countries increased, particularly for South Korea, Poland, Britain and Türkiye. The rate of people viewing Türkiye as an ally, not a “threat,” increased in countries where the survey is held, except France. The gap between those viewing Türkiye as an ally rather than a threat was 28 points in Britain and Japan, 26 points in China, 25 points in India, 19 in South Africa, 14 in the U.S. and Canada, 10 in Brazil, five in Italy and two in Germany. In France, more people view Türkiye as a threat rather than an ally.
Compared to previous surveys on the topic, the rate of people viewing Türkiye as an ally increased most in Germany, Britain, Italy and Canada. Türkiye trails behind South Korea as the country is viewed more favorably as an ally. The same survey says the U.S. and Israel are viewed less favorably as allies.
The report says although Türkiye was not conventionally defined as a great power, it is “certainly a power broker in and sometimes beyond its region.”
Türkiye’s role as a power broker was most evident last year as it strived to play a key role in resolving conflicts or at least pushing sides to a compromise. The country, meanwhile, sought more friends in a multipolarizing world, reaching out to former adversaries.
Last year was a victorious one for Türkiye’s foreign affairs, in particular. One of the major allies of NATO, Türkiye made Sweden accept its conditions to approve the latter’s admission into the alliance. It also fully restored ties with Egypt, aligning with an important ally in the region again. Elsewhere, it reached out to Greece for rapprochement after decades of hostilities. Though the two countries are still not on the best terms, relations gained more momentum in 2024 with reciprocal visits of top officials.
In late 2024, Türkiye also emerged as a major actor after the fall of the Baathist regime in neighboring Syria after decades. It became the main ally of new rulers of the country emerging from civil war. As a power broker, the country made the headlines after hosting a prisoner exchange between Russia, its allies and the Western countries, including the U.S. and its allies. Its role as a power broker also came in handy when it negotiated a peace deal between Somalia and Ethiopia to end a longstanding feud.
According to the report, the world is entering an era of heightened tensions and uncertainty as it shifts from U.S.-led unipolarity toward multipolarity. The report notes that while the future remains unclear – whether dominated by U.S.-China rivalry or evolving into a broader multipolar system – the process of “multi-polarization” continues to gain momentum.
“Today's international system shows elements of unipolarity, bipolarity, multipolarity and nonpolarity. Yet an ongoing power shift toward a greater number of states vying for influence is clearly discernible,” the report states, highlighting the rising influence of BRICS nations and regional powers such as Türkiye and Qatar.
According to the authors, multi-polarization is not only evident in the growing influence of emerging powers but also in widening ideological divides, as liberal values lose their dominance both within nations and across the global system. “Political and economic liberalism, which shaped the unipolar post-Cold War period, is no longer the only game in town. It is increasingly contested from within, as demonstrated by the rise of nationalist populism in many liberal democracies,” the report states. “But it is also challenged from without, as evidenced in a growing ideological bifurcation between democracies and autocracies, as well as in the emergence of a world in which multiple order models co-exist, compete, or clash,” it adds.
The report suggests that Donald Trump’s return to the White House could accelerate this shift, signaling the end of “Pax Americana.” It notes that Trump views the current international order as unfavorable and would likely prioritize U.S. interests and China containment, potentially straining relationships with allies. As the world shifts from U.S.-led unipolarity toward multipolarity, perceptions differ sharply between citizens of Western industrialized nations and those in emerging powers of the Global South, according to the report.
A Munich Security Conference survey found that most respondents in G-7 nations view the shift with concern, fearing it could increase disorder and conflict, making it harder to reach global agreements. When asked if a multipolar order would bring a more peaceful world, the survey revealed negative sentiment across G-7 nations: France showed minus 7% net agreement (meaning 7% more respondents disagreed than agreed), Germany minus 9%, Italy minus 11% and Japan showed the strongest skepticism at minus 20%.
In contrast, majorities in BRICS countries saw multipolarity as a path to a fairer, more just and peaceful world. The survey found that most respondents in China, India, South Africa and Brazil believed that a multipolar system would address the concerns of developing nations better. Asked whether “a multipolar world would better address the concerns of weaker/developing countries,” respondents strongly agreed: China (plus 50% more respondents agreeing than disagreeing), South Africa (plus 45% net agreement), India (plus 44% net agreement) and Brazil (plus 35% net agreement).
The report also notes that a second Trump presidency could further accelerate multi-polarization. It argues that Trump’s approach – prioritizing U.S. interests over global cooperation – could strain alliances, particularly in Europe. Trump’s return to the White House could further accelerate multipolarization, the report says. It argues that Trump’s approach – prioritizing U.S. interests over global cooperation – was likely to strain relations with traditional allies further, potentially leading to significant consequences for Europe.
The 151-page report underlined that while a more multipolar world offers significant promise for a more just and peaceful order, it could also reverse progress due to competition and polarization, making it harder to prevent conflicts and tackle global challenges. It warns that recent trends – including rising unilateral actions by great powers and record-high defense spending – heighten concerns that multipolarity's negative effects may dominate, potentially triggering increased geopolitical tensions and conflicts between rival power centers.
“Before our eyes, we are seeing the negative scenario of a more multipolar world materialize – a more conflictual world without shared rules and effective multilateral cooperation,” the report states. “Rather than generating more inclusive global benefits, it comes with fragmentation that is shrinking the proverbial global pie, potentially triggering 'lose-lose' dynamics where everyone will be worse off in the long run,” it warns.
Addressing these growing concerns, the Munich Security Conference's chairperson, Ambassador Christoph Heusgen, warned that without shared rules, multi-polarization could lead to increased global disorder and underlined the importance of respecting international norms to prevent new tensions in an increasingly complex world. “If we want to preserve common ground in a world shaped by more actors and increasing polarization, we all have to recommit to those rules laid down in the Charter of the United Nations and the Universal Declaration of Human Rights that everyone has agreed to,” he said. “A multipolar world must not become a world in which every pole acts as it pleases nor where the rule of law is undermined both internationally and at home,” he added.
The Munich Security Conference, where the report's findings will be discussed, begins on Feb. 14, bringing together world leaders, top ministers, officials and security experts from across the globe. During the three-day conference, U.S. Vice President JD Vance, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte and EU's foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas will deliver speeches. Additional speakers include U.K. Foreign Secretary David Lammy, Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani and Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly. The organizers expect approximately 60 heads of state and government, 150 ministers and leaders of major international organizations to participate.
