Experts warn that Türkiye’s forest fire risk continues despite the arrival of autumn, urging authorities to maintain preventive measures in fire-prone areas according to meteorological conditions.
Yılmaz Çatal, rector of Isparta University of Applied Sciences, explained that rainfall this year has improved vegetation and soil moisture compared with previous years, somewhat improving Türkiye’s overall wildfire outlook.
“However, this does not mean that the fire season has ended. Especially on days when high temperatures, low relative humidity and strong winds occur simultaneously, fire behavior can change very rapidly within a few hours,” Çatal said.
He noted that Western Europe experienced a difficult summer under early and severe heat waves, adding that Türkiye’s favorable situation remains fragile.
“The August-September period is the most critical part of the season. During the rainy season, large amounts of grass and shrubs have grown in forests, agricultural areas and forest clearings, creating ideal fuel conditions for fires,” he said.
Çatal said nearly 90% of forest fires are caused by human activity and that favorable weather alone does not eliminate the risk.
He said the area burned per fire, number of large fires, response times and meteorological conditions should be monitored together.
“We saw temperatures above seasonal norms in southern and western Anatolia in August. This caused combustible material to become ready to burn. The approach that ‘the rain has come, so the risk is over’ is not correct,” he said.
Çatal noted that rainfall in northern Anatolia can contribute to dry northerly winds in southern Anatolia, making firefighting more difficult.
He urged continued vigilance in the Aegean and Mediterranean regions, where summer conditions can continue into September.
“Therefore, it is important to gradually maintain vigilance and preventive measures in fire-prone areas according to meteorological conditions,” he said.
He also called for stricter monitoring of agricultural activities, industrial facilities, power transmission lines and forest-rural interfaces on high-risk days.
Çatal said Türkiye’s improved wildfire outlook in the early stages of the 2026 season was due to both favorable weather and increased firefighting capacity.
He called for wider use of dynamic risk maps combining meteorological data, past fires, terrain and human mobility, as well as AI-supported early detection systems, cameras, satellites and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).
“Simply increasing firefighting capacity will not be enough in the coming years. The real success will lie in preventing fires from starting and implementing preventive forestry practices that minimize risk,” he said.
Ertuğrul Bilgili, a faculty member at Karadeniz Technical University’s Faculty of Forestry, also said the period of elevated wildfire risk persists.
He said increased rainfall has led to intensive grass growth and dead vegetation accumulation across Türkiye.
“This situation has significantly increased the fuel load and continuity in forests. This increase in combustible material creates conditions conducive to fires starting, growing and becoming dangerous,” Bilgili said.
He noted that when fuel moisture falls below 10%, strong winds can cause uncontrollable fire behavior.
Bilgili identified mid-July to early August as the most critical period for forest fires in the Aegean and Mediterranean regions and said more than half of fires result from negligence and carelessness.
He called for residents of fire-prone areas to be trained on prevention, emergency response and evacuation plans, particularly regarding stubble burning, garden waste disposal and picnic fires.
Bilgili said wildfire policies should prioritize prevention and preparedness alongside firefighting.
“Fire management plans should be based on scientific principles and supported through dedicated funding,” he said.
He also called for controlled burning practices to be expanded to reduce combustible material in forests.
“Finding and implementing effective solutions to the fuel problem in forests is vital to maintaining future gains,” Bilgili said, adding that helicopters should be prioritized among aerial firefighting vehicles under Türkiye’s conditions.
