Recent rainfall has provided short-term relief in parts of Türkiye, but medium- and long-term indicators continue to show that agricultural and hydrological drought remains at alarm levels nationwide, according to both expert assessments and the latest data released by the Meteorology General Directorate (MGM).
Professor Mikdat Kadıoğlu, a faculty member at the Department of Climate Science and Meteorological Engineering at Istanbul Technical University’s Faculty of Aeronautics and Astronautics, said that while some regions have experienced temporary improvement, 12- and 24-month drought data point to persistent and widespread water stress.
“Recent rainfall has led to partial improvement in the short term across much of Türkiye, but agricultural and hydrological drought continues on a national scale,” Kadıoğlu told Anadolu Agency (AA) on Tuesday. “The 12- and 24-month data, in particular, raise alarm signals for reservoirs, groundwater and lakes.”
His assessment comes as new MGM figures show that Türkiye’s autumn rainfall in 2025 declined significantly compared to both long-term averages and last year.
According to data from MGM records, Türkiye received an average of 108.3 millimeters of rainfall during the 2025 autumn season. This figure represents an 18% decrease compared to the 1991-2020 long-term average of 132.7 millimeters, and a 6% decline compared to autumn 2024, when 115.4 millimeters of rainfall were recorded.
Kadıoğlu said drought impacts are most clearly visible in the 6-, 9-, 12- and 24-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) maps published by MGM.
“Agricultural and hydrological drought is widespread across Türkiye,” he said. “At this scale, drought prevents water resources from recovering quickly, even during rainy seasons. This points to a structural water management problem rather than a temporary weather anomaly.”
He noted that three-month SPI data indicate some recovery from meteorological drought in parts of the Black Sea region, eastern Anatolia and southeastern Anatolia. However, he stressed that this improvement does not offset the cumulative water deficit built up over the past two years.
“This short-term improvement should not create a false sense of security, especially in agricultural and drinking water planning,” Kadıoğlu said, adding that decision-makers must focus on long-term trends rather than seasonal rainfall.
Kadıoğlu identified central Anatolia as the most critical region in the country, warning that groundwater levels in the Konya Closed Basin are declining rapidly.
“In Konya, Karaman, Niğde and Aksaray, exceptional drought is observed across all time scales,” he said. “This threatens not only agricultural production but also the region’s socioeconomic structure.”
He added that excessive reliance on groundwater has led to sinkhole formation and unsustainable agricultural practices, underlining the need for an urgent reassessment of water-based development policies in the region.
The latest MGM data show that rainfall distribution during the 2025 autumn season varied significantly by region.
While rainfall increased by more than 20% above normal levels in parts of western Çanakkale, Balıkesir and Izmir, as well as around Düzce, Bolu and eastern Samsun, rainfall dropped by more than 60% compared to normal levels in southern parts of southeastern Anatolia and around Adana.
By region, the Aegean received rainfall close to seasonal averages, while all other regions recorded below-normal precipitation. Southeastern Anatolia experienced the sharpest decline, with rainfall down 52% from the long-term average and totaling just 47.2 millimeters, the lowest regional figure nationwide.
In terms of provincial data, Rize recorded the highest autumn rainfall at 446 millimeters, while Şanlıurfa received only 30.2 millimeters, the lowest figure among all provinces. Rainfall increased the most in Çanakkale, up 35% from normal levels, while the steepest decline was recorded in Şanlıurfa, where rainfall fell 63% below average.
MGM data also show that this autumn marked the highest rainfall in the past 15 years in Çanakkale, the highest in 14 years in Ordu, and the highest in 11 years in Sivas.
Despite increased rainfall in some areas, Kadıoğlu said long-term deficits persist in the Marmara region.
“Including Istanbul, there is a relative improvement on a three-month scale, but the 12- and 24-month SPI maps indicate very severe drought,” he said. “Edirne, Tekirdağ and Kırklareli in Thrace fall into the exceptional drought category.”
He warned that high population density and industrial activity in Marmara significantly increase water demand, meaning drought impacts could be felt faster and more severely than in other regions.
“This directly affects reservoir levels,” Kadıoğlu said, adding that without changes in water consumption habits, major cities could face water stress even during rainy periods.
Kadıoğlu said agricultural drought is also evident in the interior parts of the Aegean region.
“In Manisa, Uşak, Kütahya and Afyonkarahisar, 9- and 12-month SPI values indicate severe to exceptional drought,” he said. “This could seriously affect olive, grape and cereal production.”
He added that groundwater-dependent irrigation has increased production costs, directly affecting farmer incomes and food prices.
While the Mediterranean coastline is in relatively better condition, Kadıoğlu warned that inland areas, particularly the lakes region, continue to experience significant water loss.
“The rapid shrinkage of lakes around Burdur is one of the clearest indicators of climate change,” he said, noting that these areas are approaching critical ecological thresholds.
Kadıoğlu said the Eastern Black Sea region is facing excess rainfall rather than drought. “In Rize, Trabzon and Artvin, flood and landslide risks are more prominent,” he said, stressing the need for better management of excess water, early warning systems and risk mapping.
In the Western and Central Black Sea regions, however, long-term SPI data point to emerging hydrological and agricultural drought, despite the absence of immediate short-term stress.
“Assuming unlimited water in the Eastern Black Sea or ignoring the slow-onset drought in other parts of the region would be a serious mistake,” Kadıoğlu said.
“Türkiye is clearly experiencing the effects of climate change,” he said. “Water management must be planned based on dry years, not wet ones. Water conservation at both individual and institutional levels is no longer optional but essential.”
He called for urgent water-saving measures, particularly in Central Anatolia, Marmara and the Aegean, warning that every year of delay increases long-term risks.
