United Nations chief Antonio Guterres on Friday urged for Libyan elections to be held as soon as possible after the country found itself with two competing prime ministers, raising the specter of renewed violence.
The secretary-general reminded "all institutions of the primary goal of holding national elections as soon as possible," in a statement saying that he "takes note" of the Libyan parliament's naming of a new prime minister.
The U.N. chief's statement did not mention by name either Libya's interim Prime Minister Abdel Hamid Dbeibah or the new prime minister appointed on Thursday, Fathi Bashagha.
Guterres also did not repeat what his spokesperson had said a day earlier, namely that the U.N. has continued to support Dbeibah as interim prime minister.
War-torn Libya's parliament, based in the country's east hundreds of miles from the capital, voted to replace Dbeibah with former interior minister Bashagha, raising the prospect of a power struggle in the capital after a year and a half of relative calm.
Dbeibah, a construction tycoon appointed a year ago as part of U.N.-led peace efforts, has vowed only to hand power to a government that emerges from a democratic vote.
His unity government took office in early 2021.
But when Dec. 24 elections were canceled amid deep divisions over their legal basis and several controversial candidates, his rivals charged that his mandate had ended.
Torn apart by a decade of strife since a 2011 NATO-backed uprising that toppled dictator Moammar Gadhafi, Libya had two rival heads of government between 2014 and 2016.
The U.N. has been working to reunite the country's divided institutions since the end of the last major fighting in 2020, but many analysts have accused the entrenched political elite of blocking reconciliation efforts.
The country's infrastructure is ruined and its economy battered, meaning that for normal Libyans, the stakes couldn't be higher.
"The cost of living is obscene," said Abdul Mawla al-Kaseh, a resident of Shahat in northeastern Libya.
Salem Bakkar, also from Shahat, said it doesn't matter who heads the government as long as they "stress the importance of reconciliation and urge the holding of elections."
Libya has seen months of relative stability since a landmark October 2020 cease-fire, which formally ended eastern military putschist Gen. Khalifa Haftar's bid to seize by force the capital Tripoli in the west.
But a patchwork of local militias, with foreign backing and linked to political figures, continue to vie for control.
Dbeibah and his unity government were appointed with a mandate to steer the country to the polls, which were eventually derailed by differences over their legal basis and contentious candidates.
That left question marks over the U.N.'s roadmap.
The eastern-led parliament – whose own mandate ended in 2015 – argued that Dbeibah's administration was past its sell-by date, and stepped up efforts to remove him.
With Bashagha now challenging his power, backed by Haftar's forces, some analysts fear a return to conflict.
Yet that could look very different from the previous rounds of violence fuelled by the country's geographic divisions.
"There really isn't an East-West division as there was a year ago," said Amanda Kadlec, a former member of the U.N. panel of experts on Libya.
"What is potentially dangerous is violence in Tripoli, as Bashagha and Dbeibah both have deep connections across western Libya," she added.
Millett also warned of "potential instability in Tripoli" and said, "The international community should aim for a clear and transparent, process that sets out a clear roadmap to elections."
Kadlec added that armed groups backing Dbeibah could easily shift behind Bashagha, providing he is "willing to give them positions in government, keep paying their salaries and giving them weapons."
Claudia Gazzini, senior Libya analyst with the International Crisis Group, wrote on Twitter that the parliament was set to hold a vote of confidence on Bashagha's proposed cabinet two weeks from now.
"As recent events in Libya showed us, a lot can happen in two weeks," she said.
Just hours before the parliamentary vote to replace him, gunmen in Tripoli fired on Dbeibah's convoy in Tripoli.
The interior ministry said nobody was hurt – but there are fears it could be the opening volley of another ruinous battle.
