Prime Minister Albin Kurti's ruling party is poised to win the most seats in Kosovo's parliament but falls short of a majority, the election commission announced Monday.
Sunday's vote pitted Kurti's campaign to stamp out the influence of Serbia more than 15 years after Kosovo declared independence against the opposition's vow to boost the economy in one of the poorest corners of Europe.
With 93% of votes counted and no party with a clear majority in the 120-seat parliament, analysts warned that Kosovo could be facing a prolonged crisis, possibly ending with another election.
Kurti's Vetevendosje ("Self-Determination") party (VV) was on course to win roughly 41% of the vote, according to election commission data, down from around 50% in 2021.
The right-wing Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) trailed in second with 22% of the votes, followed by the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK) with 18%.
Election expert Mazllum Baraliu said either of the two largest parties could seek the support of smaller blocs.
"Whichever of these two combinations succeeds, they will not be stable and will be temporary," he said.
If this fails and the president is also unable to broker a compromise, a new election would be inevitable, he said.
Kurti had hinted before the vote that he would prefer to sit in opposition if his party was unable to form a majority government but changed his tune as the votes were counted.
"Without hesitation, we will form a government," he told supporters overnight, congratulating them on their "victory."
Leart Hoxha, a political analyst, said VV would be in no rush to form a coalition, instead remaining in charge as a caretaker government while the other parties squabbled.
"This will be a year that will be wasted, it will be a government that will not be able to push for major projects," he said, adding that this would be likely to lead to political and social crises.
Election officials said turnout for the vote was around 40%.
Twenty seats are reserved for minority parties, including 10 for Kosovo's ethnic Serbs, who are vastly outnumbered by ethnic Albanians.
The Serb List party said it had won all 10 seats, which if confirmed could put them in the position of kingmaker – even though the party has often boycotted parliament and is regarded by Kosovo authorities as the armed wing of Serbia.
"We thank our President Aleksandar Vucic for his congratulations and support, not only today but during all these years," party head Zlatan Elek told a news conference, referring to Serbia's president.
"We have only one country and one president."
Kosovo fought a war with Serbia in the late 1990s as it sought to break away, but Belgrade has never recognized its declaration of independence made in 2008.
Kurti's government is the first to serve its full term in office since the declaration, but his time in office has been turbulent.
Tensions spiked after EU- and U.S.-backed negotiations between Kosovo and Serbia all but collapsed in March 2023.
In the aftermath, NATO peacekeepers were assaulted by rioting Serbs while a deadly armed standoff in the north sent regional tensions soaring.
Kurti also launched a concerted effort to dismantle the remaining Serbian institutions operating on Kosovo soil by shuttering Belgrade-backed banks and post and tax offices along with banning the Serbian currency and car plates.
Throughout the unrest, Kurti has remained unwavering, even if it meant running afoul of Kosovo's allies in the U.S. and Europe.
