As Dutch centrist leader Rob Jetten celebrated his party's election surge, declaring that voters had "turned the page" on Geert Wilders, an anti-immigration, anti-Islam campaigner and a leading figure of European right-wing populism, a closer look at the results suggests the story may not be so simple.
Although Wilders' far-right Party for Freedom (PVV) is set to lose seats and return to opposition, it is still set to tie Jetten's D66 as the biggest faction in the Dutch parliament.
Gains by other far-right candidates also show how parties based on anti-immigration platforms remain an enduring, and sizeable, part of the European political landscape.
"You won't be rid of me until I'm 80," the 62-year-old Wilders said after polls closed, vowing to fight D66 from the opposition benches.
His first order of business may be to call for a recount. That would be a symbolic gesture echoing the tactics of U.S. President Donald Trump in 2020, whom Wilders has long admired.
Wilders' losses, which will be closely examined by the likes of France's Marine Le Pen and Britain's Nigel Farage, stemmed from a poor performance by his party in its first attempt at government, growing competition on the right, and the success of centrist parties in uniting against him.
Wilders made his name as one of Europe's original anti-establishment politicians, warning for two decades of the dangers he claimed were posed by Islam and immigration.
His shock 2023 election victory made the Party for Freedom the Netherlands' largest for the first time but, once in government, Wilders could no longer claim outsider status – and his ministers' inexperience quickly became apparent.
The PVV-led cabinet struggled even on its core issue, immigration, despite having a Party for Freedom minister in charge. Broader concerns, including a worsening housing crisis, went unresolved in what voters saw as a chaotic year.
"I think it will be a warning to his populist colleagues everywhere in Europe, whether they are in Germany or Le Pen in France," said Dr. Rene Cuperus of the Clingendael Institute. "You cannot screw up in government, that is the biggest lesson."
Professor Sarah de Lange of Leiden University agreed that Wilders' party had been punished for its lack of experience.
"We know from other cases like, say, Finland, Norway, even Austria, Italy, that parties (that) are more experienced ... can participate in very stable governments," she said.
Wilders was also weakened by isolation. Mainstream parties ruled out joining a coalition with him, arguing that his move to collapse his own government showed he is unreliable. That pushed some Wilders voters toward conservative rivals.
That tactic doesn't always work, De Lange said. Once a party has been in government, voters assume it can be again.
Wilders, who stayed in parliament to criticize his own coalition, maintained anti-establishment credibility through what she called a "'one foot in, one foot out' strategy that has been very successful" for Europe's populist movements.
Wilders' dominance on immigration has been blunted as rivals across the spectrum adopt tougher positions.
His calls to deploy the army to patrol borders and deny all asylum claims energized his base but would breach Dutch and EU law. Centrist and leftist rivals instead promised faster deportations and closer cooperation with Brussels.
New right-wing competitors have also emerged, including JA21, which won nine seats and could enter government in one leading scenario for how the next coalition will be formed.
De Lange said this fragmentation mirrors developments in Italy and France, where multiple far-right parties divide the vote but expand the overall pool of nationalist voters.
"If you look at Italy, Fratelli d'Italia and Lega, which are both radical right parties for whom immigration really is a core issue, the combined seat share is 40%," she said. She estimated that in the Netherlands, the number of voters willing to back anti-immigration parties has increased from 20% to 30%.
"I'm very cautious with saying there's a limit to how many voters you can attract with a migration program," she said.
Wilders' hyper-centralized party structure also limited his growth. The Party for Freedom has no members other than Wilders himself, who hand-picks candidates and enforces strict message discipline.
As rival Dilan Yeşilgöz quipped in a debate, the Party for Freedom "is just one guy with a Twitter account, there is nothing else."
That control has helped Wilders so far, but it hurts his chances with voters who see it as undemocratic. A poll by IPSOS before the election found 49% of Party for Freedom voters now think the party should open itself up.
For now, Wilders shows no sign of loosening control.
