Benjamin Netanyahu gambled that partnering with Donald Trump in a joint war effort would help topple Iran’s clerical rulers and boost his own status as the architect of a U.S.-Israeli alliance to reshape the Middle East ahead of domestic elections.
Instead, Israel's longest-serving prime minister is on a collision course with Trump as the president seeks to extricate the U.S. from the war. Neither man has met his goals and Israeli military operations remain tied down in Lebanon.
For now, Israeli officials are cautious in public, fearing they might anger their most important ally.
In private, however, frustration is clear. The preliminary agreement is "terrible for Israel," a senior Israeli official said on condition of anonymity. "And there is no one in the Israeli leadership who views it otherwise, from the prime minister to the chief of staff."
The United States says that during the 60-day cease-fire, it will negotiate terms to address U.S. and Israeli concerns, particularly regarding Iran's nuclear program.
Israeli officials told Reuters they expect negotiators to extend the period, preventing Israel from taking military action while its concerns remain unresolved.
Netanyahu and Trump have repeatedly clashed over Israel's refusal to limit its campaign against Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon, where a halt to fighting is a key Iranian demand.
Earlier this month, Trump called Netanyahu "f***** crazy" during an angry phone call, ordering him not to strike Beirut while the United States sought a deal with Iran.
Netanyahu called off the attacks that day but struck Beirut's southern suburbs a week later, provoking Iranian missile strikes on Israel and a public rebuke of both sides from Trump.
Hours before the United States and Iran announced their interim deal Sunday, Israel struck the Lebanese capital again following rocket fire from Lebanon – attacks Trump called "small and meaningless."
Netanyahu said Israel emerged "strong and steady," with a leadership that "stands firm and wise." At a news conference in Jerusalem late Monday, he acknowledged he and Trump have had differences.
"He is the president of the United States, and I am the prime minister of Israel," Netanyahu said. "We many times see eye-to-eye, and there are times when we see eye-to-eye less so. I am in charge of Israel's security interests."
Netanyahu, facing fall elections he is projected to lose, may be more willing to defy Trump as he contends with an Israeli public that polls show has grown skeptical of Trump's commitment to Israel's security.
"This is a pretty stark moment of divergence of interests," said Dan Shapiro, a former U.S. ambassador to Israel during the Obama administration who is now with the Atlantic Council think tank.
"He will try to avoid openly opposing the deal so as not to get into a brawl with Trump," Shapiro said. "But he will indicate Israel is not bound by it, and Israel reserves its rights."
The memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran is expected to be signed Friday in Switzerland. While precise terms were not immediately known, Pakistan, acting as mediator, said the pact calls for a permanent halt to military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon.
Netanyahu said Israel would keep its forces in southern Lebanon and maintain "freedom of action" against Hezbollah attacks.
"Iran wanted us to withdraw from it, but I stood firm," he told reporters. "We are keeping our freedom of action and we are keeping the security zone to protect Israel's northern citizens."
The interim deal would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil waterway, while leaving the fate of Tehran's nuclear program to be resolved during a 60-day negotiation toward a final deal.
Two other issues that Netanyahu and Trump declared as justifications for the war at its outset – curbing Iran's missile program and ending its support for regional armed groups – are reportedly not on the agenda.
Three Israeli officials said it is highly likely the 60-day pact will be extended to 90 days, with the U.S. maintaining its military deployment in the region during negotiations for a broader deal.
Two other Israeli officials said Israel was surprised last week when Trump first said a deal with Iran was close. They acknowledged Israel has had little success influencing the talks.
All the officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly.
Netanyahu, who often clashed with Washington under Democratic Presidents Barack Obama and Joe Biden, has long portrayed himself to the Israeli public as uniquely adept at dealing with the Republican president.
During Trump's first term, Israel secured major policy changes from Washington, which moved the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem and backed the Abraham Accords, establishing formal diplomatic ties between Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain.
On Iran, Trump withdrew from a nuclear agreement negotiated under Obama that Israel had long criticized as too weak.
During the 2019 elections, Netanyahu displayed massive campaign billboards in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem showing him and Trump smiling and shaking hands.
The U.S.-Iran pact now undermines Netanyahu's argument that his relationship with Trump sets him apart from other prime ministerial candidates, said Jonathan Rynhold, a political scientist at Bar-Ilan University near Tel Aviv.
"(Netanyahu) will be unable to sell this agreement to the Israeli public," Rynhold said. "The best he can hope for is that they fail to reach an agreement and the war restarts to Israel's advantage in 60 days."
According to a poll released Friday by the Israel Democracy Institute, only 41% of Jewish Israelis believe their security is a central consideration for Trump, down from 64% in March.
Energy Minister Eli Cohen said Israel would be prepared to act alone if Iran rebuilt its nuclear and missile capabilities, but added that the chances of Tehran doing so during Trump's tenure were low.
"If Iran tries to renew its nuclear and ballistic missile programs – we will be there and act," Cohen told Israel's public broadcaster Kan.
