The Israeli Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) published a policy paper last Tuesday proposing establishing an international mechanism to support stability in Syria and prevent any future military confrontation between Damascus and Tel Aviv.
Notably, the paper contradicts Israel’s escalating aggressive policy in Syria and does not align with Israel’s actions there since Assad’s fall, including airstrikes and ground incursions.
The paper proposes a collaborative framework involving Arab countries, Türkiye and international powers, utilizing Türkiye’s influence in Syria to minimize tensions with Israel. While acknowledging Ankara’s role, it emphasizes security cooperation with Türkiye.
The Institute for National Security Studies, affiliated with Tel Aviv University, is one of Israel’s most significant think tanks, providing policymakers with influential policy papers.
The proposal suggests a plan under U.S. leadership involving Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, Egypt, Jordan, Türkiye, Russia, France, Germany, the U.K. and the United Nations.
The paper claims that the plan aims to support a united and independent Syria while maintaining calm borders to ensure it does not pose a threat to Israel. However, it insists on describing the new Syrian government as "Islamic."
The plan aligns with Israel’s diplomatic approach to dealing with "free Syria," even though Netanyahu’s government has, since the first day of Assad’s fall, pursued a policy of military escalation, attacks on Syria and support for minorities – including the PKK's wing YPG in the northeast and certain Druze groups in the south – to keep Syria weak.
The study states that the reconstruction and stabilization of Syria require significant resources and international cooperation. Therefore, it proposes an initiative to the U.S. administration to establish a global mechanism for Syria’s reconstruction under its leadership.
From an Israeli perspective, this initiative suggests reducing the risks of military friction between Israel and Syria, restricting Türkiye’s influence within this international framework – ensuring that its involvement maximizes benefits while minimizing risks – and limit the chances of Iran reestablishing its influence in Syria.
It acknowledged Türkiye's key role in shaping the new Syria, which may lead to political and military tensions with Israel or, in the worst-case scenario, a direct military confrontation.
However, Türkiye is the only regional actor with both the incentive and capability to deploy ground forces in Syria, giving it substantial leverage over the country’s trajectory, the report claimed.
From Israel’s perspective, Türkiye’s role could help mitigate the risk of hostilities between Israel and the new Syrian government or between Israel and any other forces operating in Syria, it added.
De facto recognition
The main aspect of the plan is the establishment of an international mechanism led by the U.S., with the participation of Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Egypt, Jordan, France, Germany, Britain, the U.N. and possibly Russia – on the condition that it accepts the fundamental principles outlined below – to facilitate Syria’s reconstruction and stabilization.
Yet, experts believe open Israeli involvement in this initiative would likely cause it to fail from the outset. Therefore, the report states that Israel’s role should be limited to introducing the idea to the U.S. administration and engaging via that connection to ensure the protection of Israel’s vital interests.
This policy seeks to achieve several key Israeli national security objectives. These include stabilizing Syria and minimizing the risks of military friction between Israel and Syria.
It also included maximizing the benefits of Türkiye’s involvement in Syria while minimizing the risk to Israel; reducing the likelihood of Iran’s return and entrenchment in Syria; and contributing to broader efforts to stabilize the Middle East.
The outline contains several core principles. Syria remains an independent, sovereign, and unified state with a moderate Syrian regime that respects the human rights of all its citizens, regardless of religion, ethnicity or gender.
The proposed framework also offers de facto recognition of the new government and its interests. It aims to ensure Syria’s sovereignty and independence while strengthening international and regional commitments to its stabilization and reconstruction.
It also seeks to establish institutional ties between Syria, the United States and Western countries. Additionally, it aims to rebuild relations with Arab states and facilitate Syria's reintegration into the Arab world.
