After al-Bab, Turkey should target Manbij or Afrin

In recent weeks, Operation Euphrates Shield reached a critical stage as the Turkish-backed Free Syrian Army (FSA) reached the outskirts of al-Bab. Once the town is liberated, Turkey will have accomplished all Daesh-related missions as part of the ground offensive. According to Turkish sources, the FSA will not push further south but instead advance toward the People's Protection Units (YPG)-controlled Manbij or Afrin - depending on Ankara's priorities. Keeping in mind that there are U.S. forces and heavy YPG presence in Manbij, Afrin appears to be the more likely target. After all, pushing the YPG out of Afrin would help secure the Turkish border and prevent the PKK/YPG corridor from reaching the Mediterranean. Chief of General Staff Gen. Hulusi Akar's recent visit to Kilis might indicate that the Turkish operation could move against Afrin next.

Let us now go back to al-Bab, where the ground offensive against Daesh is progressing - albeit slowly. The slowdown has been due to fear of civilian casualties in the outskirts and an attempt by YPG forces in Manbij to advance toward al-Bab. In order to prevent the YPG from getting involved and cutting Daesh logistics routes, the FSA decided to lay siege on al-Bab before entering the town center. Right now, the Turkish-backed forces are moving south, east and west. Finally, they seized control of the Manbij-al-Bab highway and effectively outmaneuvered YPG militants.

To be clear, al-Bab draws interests from a number of stakeholders in addition to the FSA and YPG. In recent weeks, Washington expressed concern that the Turkish-backed FSA entering al-Bab would lead to a confrontation between Turkey and the YPG. Russia and the Assad regime, in turn, fear that the fall of al-Bab could mount additional pressure on Aleppo - which is why Damascus would rather have the YPG control Aleppo and Afrin. In Bashar Assad's view, the presence in key parts of the country is not a threat but an additional layer of security against the moderate rebels. Last week, the regime forces moved to enter al-Bab to prevent the FSA from entering the Daesh-controlled town. Meanwhile, they worked with the YPG to gain control over eastern Tal Rifaat and turned the newly-liberated areas to Hezbollah. As such, it would appear that the regime might hand out al-Bab to Hezbollah or the YPG to create a buffer zone between the Turkish-enforced safe zone and Aleppo.

Obviously, the presence of multiple stakeholders in a small area risked violent confrontation - which took place on Nov. 24, when a Syrian-owned Albatros jet targeted a building used by the Turkish special forces. The attack claimed three casualties and left 10 others wounded. According to initial assessments, Damascus wanted to accomplish two goals by attacking the Turkish military advisers: To keep the Turkish-backed FSA away from al-Bab and to fuel tensions between Turkey and Russia. Turkey responded to the regime assault by launching a major air offensive in the area to establish that it had no intention to abort the al-Bab mission and to provide air cover to Turkish troops on the ground. At the same time, Ankara maintained dialogue with Moscow as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan spoke with his Russian counterpart on the phone. According to Turkish sources, Russian President Vladimir Putin saw eye-to-eye with Erdoğan on the attack. "Putin described the regime assault as an act of provocation intended to undermine Turkish-Russian rapprochement," a senior official said. When asked whether Mr. Putin actually used the word "provocation," my source responded in the affirmative. The Russians, furthermore, yielded the point that there were two Syrian planes in the air at the time of the attack, while noting that the aircraft mentioned were not capable of perpetrating such an attack. In other words, they hinted that the regime might not have been involved in the assault at all. However, the radar tracking records in Ankara indicate that the regime aircraft indeed attacked the Turkish special forces. The two leaders also agreed to cooperate more closely on military intelligence.

Until the Turkish-backed FSA liberates al-Bab from Daesh, the ground operation will have the potential to cause additional crises. Over the next days, the Turkish military might be confronted by the Assad regime in the air or on the ground. However, Turks cannot afford to backtrack at this time. The only feasible option is to work more closely with the Russians and avoid another confrontation with Damascus en route to al-Bab - unless it's absolutely necessary. Once the mission is accomplished, the Turkish-backed forces will have to clear terrorists from Manbij or Afrin.