Five voter groups to determine the next US president
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WASHINGTONNov 08, 2016 - 12:00 am GMT+3
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Nov 08, 2016 12:00 am
Demographic shifts in the U.S. electorate favor Democrats, with minorities and young people favoring the center-left party. That could be good news for Hillary Clinton in the Nov. 8 presidential elections, but Republican Donald Trump hopes to drive up turnout among traditional supporters and new voters.
Hispanics are the fastest growing segment of the U.S. population and make up a significant share of young voters. The group also supported President Barack Obama by wide margins in 2012, but made up only a small share of the electorate. The challenge for Democrats is getting the voters to come to the polls as 48 percent of Hispanics voted in 2012.
Trump's disparaging remarks about Mexican immigrants and pledge to build a border wall could do much to spur turnout in favor of Clinton in other states with large Hispanic populations such as Colorado, Arizona and Nevada.
African Americans have been among the most loyal Democratic constituencies since the middle of last century amid the party's support of landmark civil rights legislation. In the 2012 election, black voters favored the re-election of Democrat Barack Obama by 95 percent.
Clinton hopes the group will turn out for her, but is unlikely to see the record voter participation the group gave to Obama for his election as the first black president in 2008. The group's voter participation fell slightly to 66 percent in 2012, but still remained higher than in past elections, according to Census Bureau data. Trump has pointed to what he claims are deteriorating conditions in U.S. cities, asking "what have they got to lose" in shifting their vote to him and likely further alienating them with his stereotypical views. Women have been a weak point for Trump and the release this month of a video of the candidate engaged in a lewd conversation about sexual assault followed by at least 10 women claiming he had assaulted them is likely to increase the gender gap.
Most polls show Clinton with strong double-digit leads among women, while Trump leads among men. Clinton, who would be the first female president of the U.S., has done little to tout her ground-breaking status but has highlighted her stances on issues that appeal to women such as equal pay, family leave and abortion. Trump meanwhile has discounted the polls, telling Fox News he didn't believe the surveys and that he thinks women want him to keep them safe.
Evangelical Christians have been a key part of the Republican voting bloc for decades, and despite reservations about Trump during the primary season, have largely stuck with the party.
Non-college educated white men have been at the center of Trump's campaign. This demographic group has suffered economically with the decline in manufacturing jobs and seems to be especially receptive to his anti-trade, pro-America message. While labor unions have traditionally favored Democrats, many working class whites have been shifting to the right or simply not voting. Trump hopes to drive up turnout among those who have not voted in recent years. The appeal could help Trump in key swing states in the so-called Rust Belt region, including Ohio and Pennsylvania, but risks holding him back in other areas of the country.
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