German defense companies are drawing battle lines as the nation rearms, with the old guard pushing for traditional heavy weaponry while startups promote more modern kit solutions such as AI-enabled drones.
Chancellor Friedrich Merz has vowed to create Europe's strongest conventional army with outlays of hundreds of billions of euros, accelerating a buildup that began after Russia's 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
The rush to rearm, mirrored across Europe, has also been fueled by pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump on NATO allies to spend more on defense, as well as by concerns about Washington's commitment to the continent's security.
However, where these funds should be flowing is hotly debated.
A crop of German tech and defense startups put the case that the war in Ukraine, much of it now contested in the skies with unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), has shown that relatively inexpensive, mass-producible equipment like drones powered by artificial intelligence will be key for future conflicts.
So far, some argue, too much spending has focused on time-tested but expensive weaponry such as tanks and armored vehicles, which are vulnerable to new, cheaper airborne armaments.
"Clearly there's been an overly strong focus on traditional platforms," Gundbert Scherf, one of the heads and founders of German defense technology company Helsing, told Agence France-Presse (AFP).
"Spending patterns have to change as the world around us changes."
Scherf, whose Munich-headquartered startup was founded in 2021 and supplies strike drones to Ukraine's military, sees signs that attitudes are shifting.
"I am hoping we are going to see the spending pattern change from a 99% focus on traditional systems and 1% on autonomous systems, to a more even balance."
Helsing, backed by Spotify founder Daniel Ek's investment firm and reportedly valued at 12 billion euros ($14 billion), recently conducted successful tests with the German military, striking targets multiple times.
German tech defense startup Stark, which was founded just 18 months ago and has also had its drones tested with the German military, echoed Helsing's cautious optimism.
"Procurement in Germany is changing, and that is really positive," said Josef Kranawetvogl, a senior executive at the firm, which counts among its investors Silicon Valley tech billionaire Peter Thiel.
But he worried that the shift was not moving fast enough.
"We are really good in Europe at writing strategic papers – but we have to execute more. We have to keep pace, we have to be fast," he said.
On the other side of the debate is Rheinmetall, Germany's largest weapons manufacturer and a key supplier of military vehicles and ammunition, whose sales have been dramatically boosted by the war in Ukraine.
CEO Armin Papperger recognizes drones are increasingly important – Rheinmetall also makes them and is investing more – but argues they are just one of many systems that will be vital in the future.
"Without armored vehicles, it would not be possible to defend a country or repel an aggressor if they invade," Papperger, whose company is valued at around 70 billion euros ($82.16 billion), recently told a media briefing.
"If there were a war involving NATO, it would look very different from what we currently see in Ukraine," he said.
"Drones would play a less significant role than they do now."
Drones also feature in the government's planning, with Defense Minister Boris Pistorius saying in October that Berlin planned to invest 10 billion euros in the technology over the coming years.
But there are indications of a continued focus on time-honored war gear.
News outlet Politico recently reported that the government had laid out 377 billion euros in desired arms purchases – much of it earmarked for major defense contractors.
A defense ministry spokesperson declined to comment on the report, noting that drones have been part of military operations for some time.
But the spokesperson, who declined to be named in line with standard German government practice, added that "battle tanks, armored personnel carriers and combat aircraft will continue to be needed in the future," working alongside unmanned systems.
Germany's rearmament marks a major transformation for a country with a long-standing pacifist tradition shaped by its painful World War II history.
But like the startups, some observers worry the buildup is moving too slowly – and at serious risk of misfiring.
The military's "planning is lagging behind the inexorable rise of unmanned and autonomous systems," prominent British historian Niall Ferguson and Moritz Schularick, president of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, wrote in a blistering critique recently.
They warned those in charge were too focused on "the weapons of the last war – not the next."
