With the focus of the U.S. on its newly launched conflict with Iran, Ukraine could face a critical shortage of U.S. air defense missiles at a time when Russia shows no signs of easing its campaign of striking Ukrainian cities, and the continuation of peace talks appears to be on hold.
Since the U.S. and Israel began strikes on Iran on Saturday, Iran has fired hundreds of ballistic missiles and drones at Gulf countries. Most have been intercepted, including with the PAC-3 Patriot missile interceptors that Ukraine relies on to defend its energy and military infrastructure from ballistic missiles.
The roughly 600 PAC-3s produced yearly by Lockheed Martin are already insufficient to cover U.S. needs and those of its allies in the Gulf, let alone Ukraine's, said Serhii Kuzan, head of the Kyiv-based Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Center think tank.
"It's the very simple mathematics of war," Kuzan said, adding the Franco-Italian SAMP/T air-defense system – which has similar capabilities – had not ramped up production fast enough to offer an alternative.
Fabian Hoffmann, a doctoral research fellow at Oslo University, who specialises in missiles, said stockpiling of Patriots by Gulf states meant they were unlikely to run out completely, particularly as the intensity of Iranian missile bombardments appeared to be decreasing, but they might need to become more selective in their use as time goes on.
A wider shortage could be avoided if the U.S. and Israel are successful at destroying Iran's missile stockpiles and launchers in the coming days, according to Mykola Bielieskov of the state-run National Institute for Strategic Studies in Kyiv.
Russia, which has invested heavily in military production, has fired more than 700 missiles during this year's winter campaign against Ukraine's energy infrastructure, Kyiv says. Last month, it launched 32 ballistic missiles in a single night.
The vast majority of Patriots supplied to Ukraine are provided by European nations under the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL), a NATO-led initiative launched last year to purchase U.S.-made weapons for Ukraine.
Ukraine's allies have committed to sending 37 PAC-3 missiles since their last meeting in mid-February, a source with knowledge of the matter told Reuters. Italy has ruled out taking away from Kyiv's air defenses to support the Gulf states, according to a separate source with knowledge of the matter.
But there is concern that, if the Iran war drags on, delays to supplies under PURL could worsen as the U.S. depletes its own stockpiles, two European diplomats said.
A senior U.S. defense official confirmed production-related delays in supplies to PURL in the past, and said the logjams could get worse if the war against Iran becomes protracted. "We can only crank out so much at a time," the official said.
The U.S. can assert its right to preempt deliveries to other countries at any time, for any reason.
Although Lockheed Martin is scaling up production of PAC-3s to 2,000 annually under a deal announced in January, that will come too late to address any shortages this year.
The Pentagon did not respond to a request for comment on weapons supplies to Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Monday that a prolonged and intense war in Iran could reduce the air defense systems available to Ukraine and that Russia was preparing a new wave of attacks on infrastructure, logistics and water supplies.
He has been an outspoken supporter of the U.S. attack on Iran, striking a contrast with Moscow, which has condemned the attacks on its ally.
U.S. President Donald Trump, who has pressured Ukraine for a quick peace deal that could involve ceding land to Russia, said on Tuesday that ending the Ukraine war remained high on his priority list.
But a new round of U.S.-mediated peace talks will not be taking place in Abu Dhabi on Wednesday and Thursday as expected due to Iran's attacks on Gulf states in response to the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, and no new location has been announced.
If talks do continue, Russia could try to convince a distracted U.S. to further pressure Ukraine into accepting bad terms, said Yevhen Mahda of the Institute of World Policy in Kyiv.
Ukraine has ruled out giving up land and has retaken territory in recent weeks, gaining more in February than it lost for the first time since 2023, according to Black Bird Group, a Finland-based security and intelligence analysis team.
Spring temperatures may also bring relief to Ukrainians whose power supplies have been depleted by Russian drones and missiles, while mud may slow any advances on the battlefield.
But Emil Kastehelmi of Black Bird Group said that, if there was a severe decline in Ukraine's air defenses, it would force the military to make difficult decisions about what to defend.
"Ukraine has to be able to protect not just energy infrastructure, but its industry and its military bases," he said.
Hoffmann said Ukraine needed to develop its ability to strike at Moscow's missile production facilities deep inside Russian territory with its own missiles.
"Missile defense is supposed to be a temporary measure until you can degrade the adversary's offensive capabilities," he said. Ukraine and its allies need to invest in its missile capabilities because the payload on Ukraine's long-range drones was too small to inflict significant damage, he said.
Trump's suggestion in October that the U.S. could supply long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine never materialized, following warnings from Moscow that this would seriously harm relations.
Ukraine said last month it carried out a strike using its domestically produced FP-5 Flamingo cruise missile on a Russian missile factory - the Votkinsk Machine Building Plant in the remote Udmurtia region, around 1,400 kilometers (870 miles) from the Ukrainian border.
"In the end, Ukraine is going to have to invest in offensive capabilities," Hoffmann said. "This is the only way."
