Türkiye and the U.S. are expected to focus on cooperating in areas varying from trade, energy and defense industries to investments during President Donald Trump's second term.
Efforts to improve bilateral relations between the two countries, despite certain disagreements, have been reflected positively in foreign trade, with the exchange volume increasing considerably compared to 2020.
The trade volume between the two countries reached an annual average of $21.6 billion in Trump’s first term.
The figure rose to $21.7 billion in 2020, $27.8 billion in 2021 and $32.1 billion in 2022 before falling to $30.7 billion in 2023.
Last year, bilateral trade increased by nearly 50% compared to 2020, totaling a record $32.5 billion, primarily driven by trade visits between the U.S. and Türkiye. Turkish exports of machinery, mechanical devices, boilers and jewelry stood out.
Türkiye aims to reach $100 billion in bilateral trade volume with the U.S., with Trump’s future policies and mutual visits expected to align relations with this target.
Mutual investments will also play a key role in the Türkiye-U.S. economic agenda in Trump’s second term. Over 2,000 firms in Türkiye hold U.S. capital.
Opportunities in transportation and communication are also expected to grow. Flag carrier Turkish Airlines (THY) is preparing to increase the number of U.S. destinations from 14 to 15 this spring.
Türkiye’s removal from the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) gray list last year and a decline in its credit default swap (CDS) ratings are expected to boost the confidence of U.S. investors.
Meanwhile, Trump’s tariffs and their potential effects on Türkiye will remain an important focus in bilateral relations. Shortly after his reelection, Trump announced that his team is considering imposing a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican imports starting Feb. 1.
Pledging for tariffs from day one in office, Trump appeared to be delaying levies as his administration offered an "America First Trade Policy" and vowed to "immediately begin the overhaul" of the U.S. trade system "to protect American workers and families." Analysts predict more focus to be on trimming trade deficits and some of the countries that export more to the U.S. than import include China, Mexico, Vietnam and Germany.
Trade Minister Ömer Bolat said in December that the ministry expects a reduction in customs duties for the textile sector and the removal of restrictions on steel exports.
Trump has also said he would declare a "national energy emergency." The potential effects of this decision on energy cooperation between the two countries will be closely watched.
Türkiye and the U.S. are expected to step up efforts to increase bilateral cooperation in energy and mining. The U.S.-Türkiye Energy and Climate Dialogue, launched last year, aims to enhance cooperation in energy transformation and climate change.
However, Trump has also announced plans to withdraw from the Paris climate change agreement.
American companies in space and technology sectors are expected to collaborate on new projects and sign investment deals with Türkiye in the coming years.
Türkiye made its first crewed space journeys from the U.S. last year and launched its first indigenous communications satellite, Türksat 6A, into space from the U.S. Cooperation in space exploration between the two countries is expected to deepen.
Most recently, the Turkish Space Agency (TUA) has also inked a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with U.S.-based space infrastructure developer Axiom Space to explore supply chain opportunities for Türkiye's space industry, Industry and Technology Ministry announced on Saturday.
The agreement aims to foster collaboration in areas such as space technology, aviation, textiles, material science, advanced manufacturing, communications and life sciences, the ministry said.
The two countries also share the potential for increased cooperation in the defense industry. The U.S. is anticipated to review its decision on Türkiye under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act.
On the tourism front, positive developments in bilateral relations are also expected to attract a record number of U.S. visitors to Türkiye.
Some 360,000 American tourists visited Türkiye in 2021, a figure that rose to over 1 million in 2022 and 1.3 million in 2023. The latest data shows nearly 1.4 million U.S. tourists visited Türkiye in the first 11 months of 2024.
