China will be the elephant in the room at this week's meeting of Group of Seven (G-7) finance leaders, who will seek to diversify supply chains away from the country and try to get Beijing's cooperation in solving global debt problems.
The conflicting goals come on top of vulnerabilities the G-7-rich democracies face due to their heavy reliance on China, the world's second-largest economy and the second-biggest external holder of U.S. debt.
The heightening risk of a U.S. debt default, which could jolt financial markets already jittery after recent bank failures, will overshadow the three-day meeting kicking off on Thursday in the Japanese city of Niigata.
While U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will join the G-7 finance leaders' talks, U.S. President Joe Biden on Tuesday signaled the chance of canceling his trip to Hiroshima for next week's summit if the debt issue is unresolved.
"The dollar is regarded – and Treasury securities – as the safe bedrock asset in the entire global financial system," Yellen said Monday, warning of the damage a default could inflict on the U.S. economy and financial markets.
"It's trusted, and it is the ultimate safe asset, and a failure to raise the debt ceiling, impairing the U.S. credit rating, would put that at risk. So that is a real concern."
The U.S. debt crisis is a headache for Japan, this year's G-7 chair and the world's biggest holder of U.S. debt.
Other key themes discussed at this week's G-7 gathering include ways to strengthen the global financial system, steps to prevent Russia from circumventing sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine, and global economic risks such as stubbornly high inflation, Japanese officials say.
They added that Japan hopes to issue a G-7 joint statement after the meeting.
As host, Japan has drawn up a list of other themes that will likely leave policymakers little time to enjoy Niigata's prized rice wine, many of which are linked to China.
Among them is a plan to agree on an ambitious statement for diversifying supply chains "away from countries like China" through partnerships with low and middle-income nations.
Underscoring its desire to win over the "Global South," Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki invited this year's African Union Chair Comoros to an outreach meeting on Friday.
Five more countries were invited to the outreach, including Brazil, India and Indonesia – but not China – although emerging nations' debt problems will feature high on the agenda.
On the other hand, Tokyo is courting China to join a creditor nations' meeting it initiated to resolve Sri Lanka's debt. Beijing attended the first round of talks on Tuesday as an observer, not an official participant.
As the world's largest official bilateral creditor, China should participate in meaningful debt relief for countries facing problems. Still, it has served for too long as a "roadblock" to necessary action, Yellen said last month.
There was uncertainty on whether the G-7 could convince emerging economies to help build supply chains less reliant on China. Many have been hit by aggressive U.S. rate hikes that have increased their dollar-denominated debt burden.
"The debt problems of emerging nations are becoming increasingly serious due in part to the strong dollar," said Takahide Kiuchi, an analyst at Nomura Research Institute.
"The agenda of talks show how G-7 is becoming increasingly politicized in nature, emphasizing countering China."
For the G-7 central bank chiefs, inflation will likely remain the key issue. Many of their economies are facing an inflection point, with past aggressive interest rate hikes beginning to cool growth and unsettling the banking system.
Last month, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) trimmed its 2023 global growth outlook and warned that a severe financial system turmoil could slash output to near-recessionary levels.
Data released on Tuesday showed China's imports contracted sharply and export growth slowed in April, dashing policymakers' hopes that a strong rebound in China's economy will offset an expected slowdown in other parts of the world.
