The presidency of the U.N. Climate Conference (COP29) unveiled on Thursday a draft deal aimed at determining the financial contributions wealthier countries should make to help poorer nations combat climate change. Yet, as the clock ticks toward the conclusion of the summit in Baku, many questions remain.
A new draft text released early Thursday that will form the basis of any deal reached at United Nations climate talks on money for developing countries to transition to clean energy and adapt to climate change left out a crucial sticking point: how much wealthy nations will pay.
The 10-page draft leaves other unresolved issues, such as whether only traditional industrialized nations will be expected to contribute financially or if wealthier emerging economies – such as China and the Gulf states – will also be encouraged to contribute.
However, the draft deal does specify that financial support for adapting to climate impacts and compensating for damage should primarily take the form of grants, rather than loans that could burden poorer countries with additional debt.
Ali Mohamed, chair of the African Group of Negotiators told The Associated Press (AP) Thursday that how much money is on the table "is most critical" to finding a deal, and that's what's missing from the draft deal.
The draft text "presents two extreme ends of the aisle without much in between," said Li Shuo, Asia Society Policy Institute Director. "Other than capturing the ground standing of both sides, this text hardly does anything more."
Mohamed Adow, director of the think tank Power Shift Africa, expressed disappointment in the draft. "We came here to talk about money. The way you measure money is with numbers. We need a cheque but all we have right now is a blank piece of paper," he said.
The European Union's climate envoy described the draft deal as unacceptable on Thursday, with just one day left at the conference in Azerbaijan.
"I'm not going to sugarcoat it," EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra said at a news conference.
"It is clearly unacceptable as it stands now," Agence France-Presse (AFP) quoted him as saying.
Independent experts say that at least $1 trillion is needed in finance to help transition away from planet-warming fossil fuels and toward clean energy like solar and wind, better adapt to the effects of climate change and pay for losses and damages caused by extreme weather.
There are three big parts of the issue where negotiators need to find agreement: How big the numbers are, how much in grants or loans, and who contributes.
Rob Moore, associate director at European think tank E3G, said, "Negotiators need to make a huge amount of progress over the next few days," particularly on the issue of how much.
Official observers of the talks from the International Institute of Sustainable Development who are allowed to sit in on the closed meetings reported that negotiators have now agreed on not expanding the list of countries that will contribute to global climate funds – at least at these talks. Linda Kalcher, of the think tank Strategic Partnerships, said on the question of grants or loans, the draft text suggests "the need for grants and better access to finance."
She added that the lack of numbers in the draft text could be a "bluff." The COP29 presidency, which prepares the texts "should know more ... than what they put on the table," she said.
Andreas Sieber, associate director of global policy and campaigns at the environmental group 350.org, said the text handed down this morning included a range of options, some bad, some good. "I'm pretty nervous that there are still so many outstanding options. There is a lot to be decided by ministers," he said.
But Iskander Erzini Vernoit, director of Moroccan climate think-tank Imal Initiative for Climate and Development, said he was "at a loss for words at how disappointed we are at this stage to have come this far without serious numbers on the table and serious engagement from the developed countries."
He said that some developed nations "are slowly waking up" to the fact that keeping warming to below 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial times will require over a trillion dollars in finance. "But many are still asleep at the wheel," he said.
Experts said Thursday that a deal is still a long way off, and the summit appeared headed toward the same drama and overtime finish as seen in previous years.
The conference, which has brought together tens of thousands of participants from nearly 200 countries since Nov. 11 is set to conclude on Friday.
