The impact of the war in the Middle East on the global economy will depend on its duration and damage to infrastructure and industries in the region, and in particular, whether energy price spikes are short-lived or persistent, the number two official at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Tuesday.
IMF First Deputy Managing Director Dan Katz told the Milken Institute Future of Finance conference in Washington that if there is prolonged uncertainty from the conflict and a prolonged impact on energy prices, "I would expect central banks to be cautious and respond to the situation as it materializes."
He said the conflict could be "very impactful on the global economy across a range of metrics, whether it's inflation, growth, and so on," but it was still early to have a firm conviction.
Before the U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran and counterattacks across the region, the IMF had forecast solid global gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 3.3% in 2026, powering through tariff disruptions due in part to the continued AI investment boom and expectations of productivity gains.
Katz said that the economic impact from the Middle East conflict would be influenced by its duration and further geopolitical developments.
Earlier, the IMF said it was monitoring the conflict's disruptions to trade and economic activity, surging energy prices and increased financial market volatility.
"The situation remains highly fluid and adds to an already uncertain global economic environment," the fund said in a statement issued from Washington. Katz said the IMF will look at the conflict's direct impacts on the region, including damage to infrastructure and disruptions to key sectors.
"Tourism is an important one. Air travel. Is there physical damage to infrastructure, production facilities, and the big industry in particular that everyone will be focused on is, of course, the energy industry," he said.
Oil rose further on Tuesday as Iran vowed to attack ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude oil, the global benchmark, surged to $83 per barrel, up 15% from its level on Friday.
Katz said he expected central banks to "look through" a temporary rise in energy prices, given their focus on core inflation. But central banks could respond if a more persistent energy shock results in "a destabilizing of inflation expectations."
He said the post-COVID-19 pandemic inflation spike of 2022 was influenced by energy impacts from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, with more pass-through from headline inflation to core inflation.
"And so I'm sure central banks, as they are thinking about how the geopolitical situation is translating into energy markets, will be looking at the lessons of the pandemic and seeing if they can apply any of those lessons in setting monetary policy," Katz said.
