Prime Minister Narendra Modi is urging Indians to refrain from buying gold for a year to protect foreign exchange reserves, stoking fears that tariff hikes to curb imports of the metal may be in the offing, sending shares of jewelry retailers tumbling.
The Iran war has sent oil prices surging and that in turn has resulted in mounting pressure on India's balance of payments and the rupee.
India is the world's third-largest oil importer and consumer, meeting more than 90% of its crude oil needs and about half of its natural gas demand through imports.
Modi's remarks about gold Sunday came in tandem with a range of other measures urged, including fuel conservation, increasing working from home and limits on travel and imports.
Gold is in high demand in India, particularly for weddings, with gold jewelry seen as a crucial part of a bride's attire and a popular gift from family and friends. While it is the world's second-largest gold consumer, India relies on imports to meet nearly all of its demand.
Shares of jewelry makers such as Titan, Senco Gold and Kalyan Jewellers fell between 6% and 8% Monday.
"There are concerns that the government might sharply increase import duty on gold for a year to discourage imports," said Surendra Mehta, national secretary at the India Bullion and Jewellers Association. "Duties could be raised even higher than levels seen in recent years."
In 2012 and 2013, New Delhi hiked tariffs on gold imports to stabilize a rapidly depreciating rupee. Now, jewelers fear that duty cuts made in 2024 to 6% from 15% to curb smuggling could soon be reversed.
A government source said Monday, however, that India has no plans to raise duties on gold and silver imports.
India's balance of payments is expected to deteriorate sharply this fiscal year to a deficit of about $66 billion to $70 billion, compared with an estimated $26 billion to $28 billion in 2025-26.
Pressure on the rupee has prompted the central bank to sell the dollar and limit the size of trading positions that banks can take. It has also clamped down on arbitrage trades.
