U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping tariff regime and counter moves have ignited a sell-off in global markets amid fears they could lead to recession. In Türkiye, business leaders say these contain risks but could also spark a transformation process that could create new opportunities for the country.
Major stock indexes around the world plunged again on Monday as Trump showed no sign of backing away from his plans, and as investors bet the mounting risk of recession could see U.S. rate cuts as early as May.
His "reciprocal" tariff announcement last week met with bewildered condemnation from around the world and triggered retaliatory levies from China, the world's No. 2 economy, which called Trump's behavior "economic bullying."
Duty hikes ranged from 11% to 50%, with Türkiye subjected to the "baseline" 10% tariff, lower than many other countries. That prompted government officials to point out the potential benefits of being a relatively cheaper source of goods.
The baseline tax took effect on Saturday. The higher rates are due to take effect on Wednesday. European Union imports will face a 20% tariff, while Chinese goods will be hit with a 34% tariff, bringing Trump's total new levies on China to 54%.
Trade Minister Ömer Bolat said on Friday that the Turkish government wanted to negotiate with the U.S. to lift the new tariffs, calling them the "best of the worst," given higher levies on other countries.
The decision not to impose such levies on Türkiye "seems to be to our advantage for now, for access to the American market," Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz said on Saturday.
The new hikes are expected to weaken the competitive edge of countries like China and the European Union in the U.S. market, while they may present Türkiye with significant opportunities, according to Turkish business leaders.
However, citing complexities, they remain cautious and emphasize the need for strategic planning, sector-specific analyses, and proactive measures.
Istanbul Chamber of Commerce (ITO) head Şekib Avdagiç said the global economic order is being redesigned and that the U.S. sees tariffs as a tool for "negotiation."
"Türkiye was not included in the heavy Trump tariffs, instead falling under the base tariff of 10% applied to only 11 countries. To fully understand how these tariffs will affect the 185 trading partners of the U.S., it is necessary to monitor the negotiations between the U.S. and individual countries and trade blocs, as well as potential retaliatory actions, particularly from China," Avdagiç said.
Bilateral trade between Türkiye and the U.S. jumped 4.7% to $35.2 billion. The U.S. accounted for 6.2% of Türkiye's total exports, making it the country's second-largest export destination. However, the U.S. maintained a $2.4 billion trade surplus.
"We achieved $16.4 billion in goods and services exports to the U.S. It is clear that we can sell far more to a country with a population of 340 million," said Avdagiç.
The two countries have been targeting a $100 billion annual goods exchange, a goal initially set by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Trump during the latter's first term in 2017-2021.
Avdagiç says the Turkish business community can leverage Türkiye's inclusion in the 10% tariff bracket.
"For this, our business sector must analyze Trump's tariffs without delay and shape their product and competitiveness strategies accordingly," he said. "Our business world should seize the opportunity created by Türkiye's positive differentiation under Trump’s tariffs."
Firms from Europe and the Far East facing higher duties might consider investing in Türkiye and American companies could prefer purchasing goods from the country, according to ITO chair.
This, in turn, could increase direct investments in Turkish production from many countries, especially from Europe and China, said Avdagiç.
"The U.S.'s 10% tariff bracket could help Türkiye expand its regional power status," he noted. "Türkiye's ability to seize this opportunity will depend on its efforts to develop export sectors and its strategy to find new markets."
But Avdagiç also stressed that cautious optimism must be maintained as trade wars could have political consequences. He said Trump can use tariffs as a flexible instrument depending on the situation:
“The doubling of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from Türkiye in 2018 remains fresh in our minds," he said.
"This shows that we must maintain cautious optimism."
Erdal Bahçıvan, chair of the Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ISO), said the latest process is unfolding unpredictably, rapidly, and with significant disruption.
Bahçıvan said the latest moves are the clearest indication that "we have moved from a world driven by globalization to one dominated by protectionism and trade wars."
"We must approach these new developments with a highly strategic mindset. Especially within the framework of new tariffs that are upending conventional rules of global competition, we must prepare ourselves for the emerging competitive environment by studying thoroughly," he said.
"What we face is a landscape far too complex to grasp with rote knowledge or fixed mindsets."
Bahçıvan said Türkiye appears to be treated relatively more positively compared to other industrialized countries, which could enhance its competitiveness both in attracting investment and in foreign trade.
"This new framework will bring targeted opportunities for our economy and industry. However, it may also present certain risks. That's why our country needs to engage in sector-specific preparation," he explained.
"By studying our 'lesson in competition' well, we are entering a period where we must take full advantage of this historic opportunity with smart moves. But we need to do the work."
Orhan Aydın, chair of the Anatolian Lions Businessmen's Association (ASKON), echoed those views, saying if evaluated properly, new conditions could open up new opportunities for Türkiye.
"If we can take advantage of this newly opened space for our economy, we can gain a significant edge. To boost sales to the U.S., all civil society organizations in the business world must mobilize, and exporters' associations, in particular, should increase the number of fairs and events held in this region," Aydın said.
The expansion of Turkish brands in the U.S. would also be a strategic benefit, he noted.
"With the current advantage, many of our brands will increase their retail presence in major U.S. cities, especially those with high tourist traffic," Aydın said.
"Due to high tariffs faced by other manufacturing-heavy countries, the likelihood of them turning to Türkiye as a production base is growing."
Gürkan Yıldırım, head of the Young Businesspeople Association of Türkiye (TÜGIAD), says the fact that the U.S. is estimated to reduce imports from China and the EU creates the potential for Türkiye to increase its shipments to the world's biggest economy.
"Especially in industries that rely on suppliers from those regions, Türkiye could emerge as an alternative source," said Yıldırım.
The higher costs might prompt some companies in China, the EU and the Far East to shift their production to other countries, he added.
"If Türkiye can offer a favorable investment environment, it may attract these companies' investments."
Yıldırım also pointed out that bilateral negotiations between Türkiye and the U.S. could lessen the impact of the tariffs.
"Agreements between the two countries could rebalance trade relations. The fact that Trump has left the door open for negotiation with countries subject to tariffs suggests such a possibility is on the table," he noted.
