Expectations are among the biggest factors to blame for the increase in inflation in Turkey, its treasury and finance minister said Tuesday, stressing the country would ensure the rigidity in expectations is “broken.”
Propelled by rising energy and food prices, Turkey’s annual inflation runs at a 20-year high of nearly 70%, according to official data. Consumer prices have been increasing despite tax cuts on basic goods and government subsidies for utility bills to ease the burden on household budgets.
“The most important factor that brought the current inflation to these figures are expectations,” Treasury and Finance Minister Nureddin Nebati told an ordinary meeting of the general assembly of the Participation Banks Association of Turkey (TKBB) in Istanbul.
“We will together ensure that the rigidity in inflation expectations is broken in the coming period.”
Longer-term inflation expectations are monitored closely by central banks as evidence of whether their policies are keeping inflation psychology at bay.
If expectations continue to rise, it would indicate a loss of confidence in the monetary authorities’ ability to control inflation – and make inflation itself harder to beat without painfully high and fast interest rate increases.
“We are taking steps to ensure that price increases caused by deterioration in expectations and external factors are reflected at a minimum to citizens,” Nebati said, adding that they are “sensitive and committed” to fighting inflation.
“Now our goal is to correct expectations,” Nebati said. “We will deal with it by joining hands, taking steps together.”
His remarks follow his closed-door meetings with representatives of a range of industries over the recent days to address the fluctuations in prices.
Nebati has been reported to have called on local manufacturers and retailers to impose a temporary freeze on prices.
“We have been making it clear that we stand against exorbitant practices. We are focused on an effort, which is to bring inflation under absolute control and to ensure it moves forward in line with our goals,” Nebati said Tuesday.
To further try to address concerns, the government last week pledged arrangements to boost the purchasing power of lower-income citizens.
Soaring commodity prices and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which led to a surge in gas, oil and grain prices, have compounded the situation in import-reliant Turkey.
Inflation has surged since last autumn as the Turkish lira weakened after the central bank in September embarked on a 500-basis point-easing cycle.
The government has said inflation will fall under its new economic program, which prioritizes low interest rates to boost production and exports with the goal of achieving a current account surplus.
The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) late last month revised up its inflation forecasts for this year and the next mainly because of the rise in commodity prices and supply issues.
It had forecast annual inflation will peak at around 70% by June before declining to near 43% by year-end and single digits by end-2024.
The central bank held its key policy rate steady at 14% in four meetings this year and said measures and policy steps will prioritize so-called liraization in the market.
