Trade Minister Ömer Bolat on Friday suggested that the tariffs United States President-elect Donald Trump plans to impose on imports from Mexico, Canada and China could create significant opportunities for Turkish exporters, particularly in the machinery and electronics sectors.
Trump has pledged to impose hefty tariffs on major trading partners as soon as his first day in office next month. That has so far been reserved for China, Mexico and Canada, igniting worries about a vast trade war.
Such a move would increase import costs and prompt American companies to look for alternative suppliers, according to Bolat, who says Turkish exporters could fill the void left.
"Türkiye, with its production capacity, wide range of products and competitive prices, is well-positioned to take advantage of this opportunity," the minister told Anadolu Agency (AA).
Analysts have warned that Trump's policies pose risks to global trade. However, Bolat highlighted that despite such concerns, Türkiye's exports to the U.S. increased during Trump's first term despite major challenges, such as the COVID-19 pandemic.
"Türkiye's exports to the U.S., which amounted to $9.3 billion in 2017, increased by 9.7% despite the COVID-19 pandemic, reaching $10.2 billion in 2020. This indicates that the protectionist policies implemented did not negatively impact the country’s exports as initially expected," said the minister.
Türkiye's advantages are manifold, according to Bolat, who cited high-quality standards, rapid production capabilities and extensive export experience in the European market.
These strengths, he says, coupled with compliance with ethical production standards for goods destined for the U.S., position Türkiye as a contender to replace the market share lost by China and Mexico, particularly in the textiles and ready-to-wear sectors.
Trump has promised to levy 10% tariffs on all imported goods to restrict migration and to quickly end wars taking place in Türkiye's north and south, in Ukraine and the Palestinian territory of Gaza, respectively.
Still, Bolat last month said he expected the U.S. to lower tariffs on Türkiye's steel and textile exports and hopes the Trump administration will benefit defense industry needs, despite a past row over Ankara's purchase of Russian S-400 missile defenses.
Bolat also said he expected fallout on banks to ease from Washington's current Russia-related embargoes over Moscow's war in Ukraine.
Trump's promised trade and immigration policies could also leave Türkiye relatively unscathed among large emerging market (EM) economies such as Brazil, Mexico and China, according to bankers.
Türkiye's aggressive interest rate hikes to 50% have helped cool annual inflation to below nearly 47.1% last month from above 75% in May. The policy turnaround that began in mid-2023 has helped lift net international reserves to over $64 billion from -$5.7 billion, boosted partly by a return of foreign investors.
Further elaborating on other sectors where Türkiye could create alternatives, Bolat said: "The market loss in the machinery and electronics sectors of these three countries could create significant opportunities for Turkish exporters. Turkish companies with medium and high technology in machinery and electrical devices are among the strongest candidates to fill the gap due to their competitive advantages in cost and quality."
The additional tariffs on Mexico and Canada, the two largest suppliers to the U.S. automotive sector, according to Bolat, present a significant export potential for Türkiye's globally competitive auto industry.
The impact of increased duties on agricultural imports from Mexico and Canada could also play to Türkiye's strengths.
Bolat noted that Türkiye's wide variety of agricultural products could fill the gap. He added that the chemicals sector, including plastic products, cosmetics and cleaning products, also stands to benefit from increased exports to the U.S.
Trump's tariffs could open new doors for Turkish companies, the minister said, adding that many countries, particularly those in Southeast Asia, would likely target the U.S. market for these opportunities.
"To capitalize on this, we need sector-focused strategies, strengthened logistics infrastructure and marketing strategies tailored to American consumer expectations. Türkiye's rapid production capacity, balance of price and quality, and product diversity give us a competitive edge over other countries," said Bolat.
"A more detailed assessment can be made once it is clear which products and at what rates the tariffs will be applied."
Trade volume between Türkiye and the U.S. stood at $33.5 billion as of 2023, with $14.8 billion being Turkish exports. In the first ten months of 2024, the trade volume reached $28.1 billion, with $13.3 billion being exports, said Bolat, making the U.S. Türkiye's second biggest market.
Key export items include textiles, ready-to-wear, defense industry products, machinery, electrical devices, mineral products, automotive, vegetables and fruits.
During his first term in the White House, Trump and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan had agreed on a long-term goal of achieving a trade volume of $100 billion.
During their phone call last month, Erdoğan invited Trump to visit and said he spoke very positively about Türkiye.
The Turkish president said he hoped a visit would strengthen cooperation and lead to a relationship "different from (Trump's) previous term."
Erdoğan and Trump had closer personal bonds in the latter's 2017-21 term as president. It also marked a period of strained bilateral ties due to disputes over Washington's support of the PKK/YPG terrorists in Syria and over Ankara's ties with Moscow.
Erdoğan has also made clear Türkiye is ready to collaborate with the U.S. to resolve regional crises like the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and Israel's relentless attacks on Gaza.
