The annual inflation rate in the U.K. jumped more than expected in October to swing back above the Bank of England's (BoE) target and hit a six-month high as households and businesses faced higher energy bills, according to official data Wednesday.
The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) reached 2.3% from a three-year low of 1.7% in the 12 months to September, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said in a statement.
The CPI was last at 2.3% in April, the ONS added in a statement, while analysts' consensus had been for the rate to climb back to 2.2%.
The Bank of England target stands at 2.0%.
"Inflation rose ... as the increase in the energy price cap meant higher costs for gas and electricity compared with a fall at the same time last year," ONS chief economist Grant Fitzner said of October's data.
Britain's energy regulator Ofgem sets a price cap quarterly that suppliers can charge customers. The latest increase in October was 10%, but this is expected to drop markedly in January, according to forecasts.
The regulator had cited rising prices on international energy markets owing to increasing geopolitical tensions and extreme weather events driving competition for gas as the reasons behind the sharp rise.
"We know that families across Britain are still struggling with the cost of living," senior Treasury official Darren Jones said in reaction to Wednesday's inflation reading and saying the Labour government needed to do more to help.
Analysts said despite prices rising faster than expected, the BoE remained on course to keep cutting British interest rates.
"But it lends some support ... that the Bank will skip the December meeting and cut rates only gradually, by 25 basis points in February and at every other policy meeting until rates reach 3.50% in early 2026," forecast Ruth Gregory, deputy chief U.K. economist at Capital Economics research group.
Earlier this month, the central bank trimmed borrowing costs by 25 basis points to 4.75%.
Following its decision, the BoE added that a maiden budget from Britain's Labour government in October, featuring tax rises and increased borrowing, would boost growth but also lift inflation.
Bank Governor Andrew Bailey cautioned that rates wouldn't be falling too fast over the coming months, partly because last month's budget measures would likely see prices rise by more than they would otherwise have done.
Rate-setters will meet once more this year, on Dec. 19, by which time they will be armed with more monthly inflation readings.
Central banks worldwide dramatically increased borrowing costs from near zero during the coronavirus pandemic when prices started to shoot up, first as a result of supply chain issues and then because of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine which pushed up energy costs.
As inflation rates have fallen from multidecade highs, the central banks have started cutting interest rates, though few, if any, economists think that rates will fall back to the super-low levels that persisted in the years after the global financial crisis of 2008-2009.
Recent developments have scaled back expectations of rapid cuts from the Bank of England.
In her budget, British Treasury chief Rachel Reeves announced around 70 billion pounds ($90 billion) of extra spending, funded through increased business taxes and borrowing. Economists think that the splurge, coupled with the prospect of businesses cushioning the tax hikes by raising prices, could lead to higher inflation next year.
The global inflation outlook has become more uncertain since Donald Trump was reelected U.S. president.
He has indicated that he will cut taxes and introduce tariffs on certain imported goods when he returns to the White House in January. Both policies have the potential to be inflationary both in the U.S. and globally, and thereby keeping interest rates higher than they otherwise would have been.
"While we think the Bank of England will continue to cut rates in 2025, the pace of rate cuts is expected to be slower than previously anticipated, and rates may stay elevated for longer," said Monica George Michail, an economist at the National Institute for Economic and Social Research.
"This outlook reflects forecasted inflationary pressures stemming from the recently announced budget, in addition to heightened global uncertainty, particularly surrounding the Trump presidency," she added.
