U.S. consumers are anticipated to push their winter holiday season spending to nearly $1 trillion, a slight uptick from the year ago, the National Retail Federation (NRF) said Tuesday.
The trade association forecasts that total holiday spending in November and December will grow by 2.5% to 3.5% over 2023, reaching between $979.5 billion and $989 billion.
The period covers "Black Friday," the day after the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, and "Cyber Monday." Both are known for heavy retail promotions designed to entice strong spending on gifts.
Online shopping contributes strongly to the overall retail performance, with web and other non-store sales anticipated to jump by 8% or 9% from a year ago.
"Overall, the economy has been in a good place this year, operating with solid footing," said NRF president Matthew Shay at a news briefing.
"The consumer economy and the retail industry certainly continue to benefit from that strength," he said, noting that consumers still exhibit resilience.
But people have become more cautious in their spending since the COVID-19 pandemic, Shay added, attributing this to lingering inflation – particularly in services.
Retailers are expected to hire between 400,000 and 500,000 seasonal workers this year, slightly lower than the 509,000 last year, according to the NRF.
But one difference this year is that the shopping period between Thanksgiving and Christmas will be shorter by six days.
Consumers are also beginning to shop earlier, said Shay.
This could add pressure on logistics companies, who will need to manage their inventory levels, and on retailers dealing with customers who are accustomed to receiving their purchases swiftly.
For the full year, retail sales are set to grow between 2.5% and 3.5% as well, reaching $5.2 trillion to $5.3 trillion.
